Thanks so much for the comment!

What you say is true, and I agree the exit poll numbers do seem to come from left field; I could’ve done a better job contextualizing that. With regards to the numbers, I think my point was largely that President Obama isn’t nearly as unpopular in Virginia as Creigh Deeds’ campaign strategy seemed to assume.

As Think Progress notes, the problem with Deeds is that he had a proven progressive track record on economic/non-social issues, and by the end of the election, he’d not only turned his back on most of his resume, but he was actively campaigning against Obama’s agenda. It’s possible to be a socially conservative progressive – especially at the state level. (I’m an Alabaman, so I understand the difficulties of red state liberalism, but I think the DNC and DCCC attitudes towards red states could use a little adjusting – see Bob Moser’s Blue Dixie.)

Virginia’s electoral history and off-year election fatigue certainly didn’t work to Deeds’ advantage but running against the party he was nominated for certainly didn’t do him any favors. McDonnell isn’t terribly moderate, and Deeds tacked hard to the right, responding to McDonnell’s accusations of DC liberalism by legitimizing McDonnell’s claims about cap and trade legislation and EFCA. Instead of saying “that’s not true,” he just said “I’d never do that,” like supporting the labor unions that endorsed him was really all that bad.

At the end of the day, there’s no way of knowing whether or not Creigh Deeds would have won had he not turned away from his previously more left-of-center stances on labor and climate issues, so my post is pure speculation. But it wouldn’t be accurate to say Virginia had the choice between a Republican and a Democrat. They had the choice between a Republican and probably one of the most uninspiring Democrats ever to run under the banner. I don’t think Deeds would have won by virtue of being a progressive, but I think he would’ve been defeated by a less embarrassing margin.

Deeds didn’t really promise much beyond not being a liberal, and in that case, you might as well vote for the Republican. My blue dog Rep Bobby Bright still has my vote next year largely because he’s civil in his disagreement with more left-leaning Democrats – he at least gives the appearance of understanding there are always two sides to an issue. Creigh Deeds was probably doomed from the start, but it should be a pretty good warning to Democrats: not a lot of good comes from supporting your purportedly extremist thesis-writing opponent’s attacks on the President. Given that the party has been drifting to the right for a number of years, I think that’s a good lesson to learn. Finally.

Thank you for this smart piece.

Question. . . you don’t address what Deeds might have lost if he had appealed more to the left. Sure maybe some more on the left would have come to polls but wouldn’t other Virginians have refused to vote for him? You can say accurately that Obama has 51% support in Virginia but that does not mean that those 51% agree with Obama’s policy choices. They may like him but not vote for someone else who advocates those same policies. I think we can all agree that Obama’s favorability rating is not based primarily on his position on climate change and labor issues.

And would the Obama Democrats in Virginia to whom you refer really all describe themselves as “progressive?’ You say “Harry S. Truman once said, “Given the the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.” Ok and in Virginia given the choice between voting for someone who acts like (or is) a progressive/liberal versus someone who acts like a moderate I am not sure the progressive wins.

On the national stage, however, you may have a point but then again the Virginia Governor’s race is not the national stage.

Thanks again for this.