Minnesota Senate Race Turns to Dead Heat; Democrat’s 11-Point Lead Drops 10 Points in a Month

Minnesota’s Senate race has become a dead heat, according to a new poll, and may represent one of the few opportunities Senate Republicans have this year to defeat an incumbent Democrat.

Former U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis trails Democratic incumbent Sen. Tina Smith among likely voters by just 1 point, 43-42 percent, according to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday. That’s a 10-point shift from September, when Smith led Lewis 47-36 percent.

The dynamic suggests it is the only seat other than one Alabama where Republicans stand a strong chance of picking up a vote in the Senate. Polling in that state has shown incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones trailing Republican Tommy Tuberville by nearly 20 points.

Minnesota has long favored Democratic political candidates, thanks to a coalition of support from urban and rural voters, with Republicans centered largely in the state’s suburbs.

However, the two parties have largely traded voters under President Donald Trump, which also led them to trade congressional seats in 2018. Republican Rep. Pete Stauber won the state&

#8217;s northeastern House district, which has been represented by Democrats for all but four of the last 73 years, while Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips defeated Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen to win a House seat in the suburbs. Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn seized the state’s rural southern district that year after it was vacated by Democrat Tim Walz, who successfully ran for governor, while Democratic Rep. Angie Craig replaced Lewis in a bordering suburban district.

The latest poll suggested the demographic reversal is growing. It found Lewis leading 51-36 percent among rural voters, while Smith leads 51-29 percent among urban voters. It found her leading among suburban voters 44-42 percent.

Smith was appointed to her position in 2018 by former Gov. Mark Dayton (D) to fill the vacancy left open by former Democratic Sen. Al Franken’s resignation. She won a special election to fill the remainder of his term in 2018.

The poll, conducted from October 16-20, included 625 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.