Big Short Investor Makes Bold Prediction in Trump Tariff Trade War, Calls Out 2 Nations Who ‘Hold No Cards’

Steve Eisman, the investor immortalized in The Big Short, just gave President Donald Trump a major boost in the global tariff fight, arguing that if “reasonable heads prevail” the president will get “what he wants.”

Eisman, who famously placed an early bet against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crash, said Trump could “get pretty much what he wants” from the ongoing tariff war because, in the end, the U.S. simply has more leverage than its trade partners.

“If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants,” Eisman told CNBC on Tuesday.

“The US will suffer the least,” he explained, noting that exports only make up 11 percent of America’s GDP compared to 30 percent for the European Union and 35 percent for Canada and Mexico.

He continued: “If countries were rational, countries like Canada and Mexico would basically coming to the United States and beg – ‘We’ll do what you want’ – because of the 35%, Mexico and Canada have of their GDP from exports, 25 points of that 35 percent is just exports to the United States. Those countries hold no cards. Now, Europe is not much better, and so I think if everyone is rational, they’ll lower their barriers.”

“Now that doesn’t mean everybody’s rational,” he added. “There’s politics, some of the politicians might be afraid if we give in we’re going to lose our jobs, that’s the wild card.”

That kind of language is likely to rile critics—but for Trump allies, it’s a vindication of the White House’s aggressive trade posture, especially after the president announced plans to slap a massive 104 percent tariff on China and hinted at targeting pharmaceuticals next.

Eisman, portrayed by actor Steve Carell in the film adaption of The Big Short, also dismissed the panic of economic and media commentators.

“Everybody in the stock market went to college and had it drummed into their heads that trade wars are bad,” he said. “Now you’ve got a president… who doesn’t seem to accept that paradigm, and people find it jarring.”

Love him or hate him, Eisman said Trump is delivering exactly what he campaigned on: “You can agree with President Trump or you can disagree with him… he is one of the few politicians in my lifetime who does exactly what he says he’s going to do.”

Watch above via CNBC.