GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms — And 1 in 5 Americans Want Another Choice: New Poll
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A new poll out this week shows the Republican and Democratic Parties effectively tied in the battle for control of Congress with the midterms a little less than four months away.
The first New York Times/Siena College poll out this cycle shows that among registered voters, 41 percent prefer Democrats to maintain control of Congress, while 40 percent want Republicans to gain the majority. A whopping 19 percent of those surveyed want “other” to control the legislative branch – clearly disillusioned with both parties.
The poll shows a slight advantage for the GOP among likely voters, with Republicans leading 44 to 43 percent. Nate Cohn of the New York Times chalks this up to the “tendency for the party out of power to enjoy a turnout advantage in midterms.”
Democrats and Republicans begin the midterm campaign with voters split on which party they’d prefer to control Congress
Among registered voters: D 41, R 40
Among likely voters: R 44, D 43https://t.co/1QademGemT— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 13, 2022
Historic trends show that the party in the White House loses seats in the House during the midterm elections, going back to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, only Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s parties won seats during the midterm elections in 1998 and 2020 – respectively.
“The results suggest that the wave of mass shootings and the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade have at least temporarily insulated the Democrats from an otherwise hostile national political environment while energizing the party’s predominantly liberal activist base,” adds Cohn of the Democrats remaining in striking distance of the GOP in the poll.
The poll also found that some 80 percent of voters believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction and President Joe Biden’s approval rating is at a dismal 33 percent – with a whopping 64 percent of Democrats not wanting him to seek reelection.
Josh Kraushaar wrote in Axios that the poll also shows, “We’re seeing a political realignment in real-time.”
Kraushaar was reflecting on the demographic breakdown within support for the Democrats, which now have a “bigger advantage” among college-educated voters than nonwhite voters – which once comprised the base of the party.
For the first time in a Times/Siena national (or state poll with n>100 nonwhite respondents), Democrats won a larger share of white college graduates than nonwhite voters.
Over all, Democrats led among white college grads, 57-36.
They led 51-27 among non-white voters. pic.twitter.com/nkXerGzAJW— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 13, 2022
The poll shows that Democrats now have a 20-point advantage over Republicans with white college-educated voters, but are statistically tied among Hispanic voters.
“Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights,” Kraushaar explains, adding, “Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.”
The poll was conducted between July 5th and the 7th among 849 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
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