Republicans ‘Getting Swamped’ By Dems in Small-Donor Dough Could Lead to ‘Republican Senate Debacle’ Per Axios Analysis

L: Stefani Reynolds/AFP Via Getty Images – R: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Republicans are “getting swamped” by Democrats in the race for small-donor cash, which could help lead to a “Republican Senate debacle” in the November midterms.

That’s the conclusion of an analysis by Lachlan Markay at Axios, who took a look at the ten most competitive Senate races in an election that will decide the balance of the current fifty-fifty makeup of the chamber.

Some highlights:

— Democrats across the 10 most competitive Senate races are out-raising Republicans by more than $75 million among small-dollar donors — those giving less than $200 — according to an Axios analysis of Federal Election Commission records.

— Even the GOP’s best small-dollar performers are being swamped by huge grassroots backing on the other side.

— Just one Republican in those 10 contests is topping his Democratic competition in grassroots money.

And as Axios notes, even that one Republican — Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — is only narrowly beating his three top Democratic rivals.

While high-dollar GOP donors are “keeping the money race competitive,” Axios notes that the small donor arena is typically an advantage for Republicans, making this shift a potential canary in the coal mine for a disaster:

The bottom line: The GOP’s fundraising problems — in addition to the elevation of flawed or extreme candidates — are contributing to fears of a Senate debacle in what should be a favorable political environment for Republicans.

The Democrats have also been trying to help things along with a strategy in which they have apparently tried to boost against more moderate candidates in an effort to choose opponents that they see as easier to beat in a general election.

What was shaping up to be a Red Wave in November has been thrown into doubt by a number of other factors as well, including the Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization — which effectively overturned Roe v. Wade — and former President Donald Trump, who figures in not just for his steady stream of endorsements, but also for the blockbuster January 6 hearings that have dominated the news this summer. The ending to that story is still being written.

Correction: A previous version of this story stated that Kari Lake is running for Senate in Arizona. She is running for governor.

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