Republicans ‘Getting Swamped’ By Dems in Small-Donor Dough Could Lead to ‘Republican Senate Debacle’ Per Axios Analysis

Republicans are “getting swamped” by Democrats in the race for small-donor cash, which could help lead to a “Republican Senate debacle” in the November midterms.

That’s the conclusion of an analysis by Lachlan Markay at Axios, who took a look at the ten most competitive Senate races in an election that will decide the balance of the current fifty-fifty makeup of the chamber.

Some highlights:

— Democrats across the 10 most competitive Senate races are out-raising Republicans by more than $75 million among small-dollar donors — those giving less than $200 — according to an Axios analysis of Federal Election Commission records.– Even the GOP’s best small-dollar performers are being swamped by huge grassroots backing on the other side.– Just one Republican in those 10 contests is topping his Democratic competition in grassroots money.

And as Axios notes, even that one Republican — Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — is only narrowly beating his three top Democratic rivals.

While

high-dollar GOP donors are “keeping the money race competitive,” Axios notes that the small donor arena is typically an advantage for Republicans, making this shift a potential canary in the coal mine for a disaster:

The bottom line: The GOP’s fundraising problems — in addition to the elevation of flawed or extreme candidates — are contributing to fears of a Senate debacle in what should be a favorable political environment for Republicans.

The Democrats have also been trying to help things along with a strategy in which they have apparently tried to boost against more moderate candidates in an effort to choose opponents that they see as easier to beat in a general election.

What was shaping up to be a Red Wave in November has been thrown into doubt by a number of other factors as well, including the Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization — which effectively overturned Roe v. Wade — and former President Donald Trump, who figures in not just for his steady stream of endorsements, but also for the blockbuster January 6 hearings that have dominated the news this summer. The ending to that story is still being written.

Correction: A previous version of this story stated that Kari Lake is running for Senate in Arizona. She is running for governor.