Nate Silver Calls the Election ‘Highly Competitive’ With This New Data From FiveThirtyEight
From polling data about a month ago, it seemed as if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held a sizable lead over her GOP rival Donald Trump; the key eleven states that will decide the 2016 race were all favorably leaning left — with room to spare — and her path to victory was clear.
Now, things have seemingly become a bit tougher for Clinton. On the backdrop of a few news cycles that have seen Clinton battling questions about her health and continued questions about her private email server, the Democratic nominee’s lead has lessened.
The newest polling data from FiveThirtyEight is out this morning, and Nate Silver himself is calling the spread “highly competitive.”
Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the election. It’s highly competitive, folks. https://t.co/IDN3p4wsz4 pic.twitter.com/hIcskC1rGX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 14, 2016
Hillary Clinton — according to FiveThirtyEight — now has a 65.% chance of winning the White House, as opposed to Trump’s 34.4%.
The so-called “flyovers” are reliably red as always according to the data; the North Dakota-Texas strip remains red, as does the heart of the deep south. But it’s the data circling the primary eleven states up for grabs that will determine who is named the winner on the night of November 8th.
Nevada holds for Clinton according to this data by a trim margin, as does Colorado with its 9 electoral votes. While Michigan and Wisconsin seem reliably blue at this point, Ohio and its 18 electoral votes aren’t quite so favorable for the Clinton machine; it’s currently polling at 53.5% in favor of Trump. Virginia, perhaps firmly on the Tim Kaine wagon where the Veep candidate is 8-0 lifetime in elections, has a nearly 81% chance of going Democrat. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are also leaning blue.
But as always, doesn’t it come down to Florida? There, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Hillary Clinton has only a 50.4% chance of winning its all-important 29 electoral votes.
[image via FiveThirtyEight]
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