AP Photo/Carlos Osorio (L)/AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson (R)
Tuesday night’s showdown between the least popular vice presidential nominee in modern history and a guy whose own allies are previewing the debate by warning that he’s “gruff,” “brash,” and prone to shutting down when he’s feeling “stressed” is not exactly a clash of titans.
But the debate between Senator JD Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) may nevertheless prove pivotal given the fact that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are unlikely to appear on stage together again before election day. Here are the four questions that will determine the winner.
WILL VANCE TAKE THE BAIT?
Much like his running mate, Vance has a penchant for making life harder on himself than it needs to be. His baseless claims that pets are being eaten en masse in Springfield, Ohio, fixation on childless cat ladies, and frankly terrifying comments about what he would have done in Mike Pence’s position on Jan. 6, 2021 provide Walz and the moderators with
That’s why, if he stands any chance of furthering his cause, Vance must not take any of the bait sure to be waved in front of him. If he’s asked about any of those prior statements, he cannot allow himself to get dragged into defending the indefensible. If he’s asked about Fluffy and Fido on a dinner plate, his answer should be about the border. If he’s asked about childless cat ladies, his answer should be about child tax credits. If he’s asked about the 2020 election, his answer should be about the one taking place in a few weeks.
He’s had trouble with this before. In a recent interview with Dana Bash, Vance found himself backpedaling into a clumsy defense of the falsehoods he’s spread about Springfield. Even one moment like that at the debate could be his undoing.
TIM TANTRUM?
Managing expectations is an important part of debate strategy, so it should come as no surprise that Democrats have been setting expectations low for Walz. But some of the quotes out a report from Politico this morning go beyond this common practice to the point of being concerning.
People in his corner have characterized him as “a bit manic,” as well as “gruff and brash.” And reportedly, “there remains some concern among Walz’s allies that he can be overly defensive and
That’s not great news considering the fact that Walz has hardly been challenged since joining the Democratic ticket. In fact, when he was confronted almost apologetically by Bash over his misstatements about his military record, he struggled mightily, managing only to choke out something about wearing his “emotions” on his “sleeves” and his poor understanding of grammar. Friendly media outlets might let him get away with such displays of mediocrity, but Vance is unlikely to do the same. Will the thin-skinned governor brush him off or implode?
REF OR TEAM PLAYER?
In the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden earlier this year, Bash and her co-moderator Jake Tapper took pains not to insert themselves into the contest. They asked tough questions of both candidates, kept the evening moving, and let the American people judge the candidates on their own.
ABC’s David Muir and Linsey Davis took the opposite approach while overseeing the sole debate between Trump and Harris, asking tough questions of Trump, lobbing softballs at Harris, and “fact-checking” only Trump’s answers, sometimes erroneously.
If Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan take CNN’s approach or stake out some kind of middle ground, the debate will be a toss-up. If they put their thumbs on the scale in the way Muir and Davis did, however, Walz will be playing man-up.
WHO
Tuesday night isn’t a campaign rally aimed at driving base turnout, it’s an opportunity to speak to undecided voters who want to hear the candidates address the issues most important to them.
Vance’s typical crowds might love to hate on Harris’s support for free transgender surgeries for illegal immigrants and Walz’s jokes about Vance’s relationship with his sofa might kill with audiences that already hate his Republican counterpart, but neither are likely to move the needle at the debate.
The economy and immigration are the two subjects voters say will play the biggest role in helping them decide how to cast their ballot, and that makes them the two most important topics that are likely to come up.
Vance would be wise to stay laser-focused on the cold, hard facts about Harris’s record on these issues instead of getting distracted by shiny red herrings that draw clicks and eyeballs in the right-wing ecosphere, but confuse less-engaged voters.
On the other hand, Walz must articulate visions for the border and economy that strike a contrast not just with the Trump-Vance ticket, but with the Biden administration.