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ABC News’ Dowd Says Bernie Has Better Shot Than Ted Cruz of Overcoming Delegate Lead

When they’re not chewing over the latest Donald Trump controversy, the political media is hard at work obsessing over “delegate math,” which is like regular math mixed with sleeping pills. On Tuesday morning’s Good Morning America, ABC News political commentator Matthew Dowd attempted to inject some suspense into the Democratic contest by asserting that insurgent candidate Bernie Sanders has a better chance of overtaking frontrunner Hillary Clinton‘s lead in pledged delegates than Ted Cruz does of taking the delegate lead from Donald Trump:

Ted Cruz has less of a chance of passing Donald Trump than Bernie Sanders does. Bernie Sanders has a better chance of passing Hillary Clinton among pledged delegates than Ted Cruz in passing Donald Trump.

As a matter of math, Dowd is correct, Bernie Sanders is much closer to Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates than Cruz is to Trump, but this is delegate math, so comparing these two races isn’t that simple. While Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally, Republican states can choose some combination of proportional allocation or winner-take-all, which gives Cruz opportunities to catch up that Sanders won’t have. On the other hand, the larger Republican field means that neither Trump nor Cruz has a great shot at securing the majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination.

The fact is, though, that neither runner-up has a great chance of overtaking their party’s respective frontrunners at this point, which leaves most of the drama to occur on the sidelines.

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