Even after a surge in the polls following her strong performance in the “kid’s table” Fox News debate, Carly Fiorina will still probably not make the next Republican presidential debate because of which polls CNN has decided to include.
The problem is that CNN will offer debate spots based on an average of select polls starting from July 16. Between July 16 and Fiorina’s August 6 debate performance, she never managed more than a blip in the polls. By contrast, Fox News only averaged the five most recent polls to determine who would make their debates.
The Hill‘s analysis is that unless there is a drastic change in polling data, the ten candidates who will appear on the CNN stage September 16 are extremely likely to be the same ten candidates who appeared in the Fox debate. “Fiorina would need to average 5 percent, her best performance to date, for 11 straight polls to rise above [John Kasich and Chris Christie], as long as their percentages did not rise as well.”
CNN’s polling criteria would likely also protect candidates who polled strongly before the debates, but dropped afterwards (most notably Rand Paul).
[h/t The Hill]
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