Election Betting Odds Turn Sharply Toward Kamala Harris After Shock Poll Shows Her Leading Trump in Iowa
The presidential election prediction markets shifted heavily toward Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday night after the release of a shocking poll that showed her leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the vice president leading her GOP rival 47% to 44% among likely voters.
The poll sent Trump’s numbers tumbling while he held onto his overall advantage in most markets.
Kalshi had Trump with a 64-36 advantage on Tuesday. Saturday night, Trump led 51% to Harris’s 49% as of 9:15 p.m. ET – and that didn’t last long.
Kalshi
As of 9:30 ET, Harris and Trump were tied.
Trump’s odds on Polymarket also dropped to 54.9% to Harris’s 45.3% Saturday from a high of 67-33 on Wednesday of this past week.
Polymarket
Meanwhile, PredictIt flipped the advantage to Harris in the hours after the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll drop:
PredictIt
Election Betting Odds also saw Harris with a 4.1% increase on Saturday night, which mirrored an identical 4.1% drop in Trump’s odds earlier in the day:
Election Betting Odds
Forbes explained on Friday how betting on elections works for those curious about placing a wager:
Platforms take wagers for a certain candidate to prevail, with payouts dependent on the market-implied odds on the day of the bet. So if a candidate were to wager $100 on a candidate with 50% odds, they’d collect a roughly $100 profit if that person won, or they’d lose the $100 if their pick lost (not accounting for any fees taken by the betting site).
Odds move for the presidential election markets similarly to other betting markets, like sportsbooks, meaning a key injury update which would swing the betting odds on a game should have a similar effect to a swing-state poll more favorable than prior surveys for a certain candidate.
