Gavin Newsom Leads Over JD Vance Among Young Male Voters, Republican Pollster Finds
David Crane/The Orange County Register via AP, File
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has the lead with young male voters in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup against Vice President JD Vance, according to a new survey from a Republican pollster.
Newsom got a lot of heat from his fellow Democrats for his podcast chats with controversial figures on the right, but a new poll shows he seems to be making headway with a demographic where the left lost ground to President Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans: young men.
The governor was undeterred by the criticism, saying that Democrats needed to “get out of our own damn bubble” on a May episode of his podcast. Over the past few months, Newsom has also taken a notably sharper and snarkier tone on his social media, blasting Trump and other key Republicans with a seemingly endless wave of memes, parodies, and mockery written in caps lock to mimic one of the president’s personal writing foibles.
Young male voters made a marked turn to the right in 2024. In 2020, 45 percent of men ages 18-44 voted for Trump against President Joe Biden; in 2024, Trump increased his share to 53 percent of that group.
Newsom is starting to reverse that rightward trend, according to the latest poll by League of American Workers/TIPP, a GOP-affiliated pollster that lists among its contributors Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow, along with several Republican members of Congress and top GOP campaign consultants.
This new online TIPP poll of young male voters was part of a survey of registered U.S. voters aged 18-25, conducted from Oct. 22 to 28 with a total overall sample size of 2,100 and a sample of 1,300 men. The margin of error for the male respondents was +/- 2.8%, and “[a]fter data collection, results were weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and prior voting history to match national benchmarks from the U.S. Census and voter files.”
When the young men in the poll were asked whether they would vote for Newsom or Vance if the 2028 presidential election were held today, 38% picked Newsom, 33% Vance, 15% said someone else, and 15% were not sure.
Naturally, Vance did better among the young men who voted for Trump, winning 67% of that group, but Newsom still pulled 14% of 2024 Trump voters.
The poll also included a series of questions that asked, “In general, do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way [elected official] is handling his job as [job title], or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
Trump (38% approval, 52% disapproval, and 10% unsure) and Vance (34% approval, 45% disapproval, and 21% unsure) were underwater with young men, but Newsom was viewed more favorably (36% approval, 32% disapproval, and 32% unsure).
Both Newsom and Vance did fare slightly better with young men than their political parties, with both the Republican (34% approval, 50% disapproval, and 16% unsure) and Democratic Party (37% approval, 45% disapproval, and 18% unsure) having negative approval ratings.
