Former FDA Chief Optimistic U.S. Will Avoid a Fourth Wave of Covid

Former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb was hopeful that the United States won’t see a fourth wave of the coronavirus, but cautioned about “tak[ing] our foot off the brake a little too early.”

Gottlieb — who is on the board of Pfizer — spoke to Margaret Brennan on Sunday to go over his concerns about whether mutated strains of Covid could lead to new outbreaks and a prevalence of reinfection. As Brennan acknowledged concerns about the Covid variant identified in the UK, she asked Gottlieb if he was rethinking his fourth wave projections because of how many people are publicly gathering or going on spring break.

“Well, I don’t think we’re going to have a fourth wave,” Gottlieb said. “I think what we’re seeing around the country is parts of the country that are plateauing, and we’re seeing upticks in certain parts of the country.”

Gottlieb based his analysis on the country’s prior infection levels, plus the rate with which Americans are being vaccinated against Covid.

“Even if you account for the fact that maybe about 30 percent of the people being vaccinated previously had Covid, we’re talking about some form of protective immunity in about 55 percent of the population. So there’s enough of a backstop here that I don’t think you’re going to see a fourth surge.”

Gottlieb concluded by warning that country might see a plateauing before infection rates decline if people don’t wear masks, or if a covid variant that bypasses prior immunity starts to spread.

“I do think that the fact that we’ve sort of taken our foot off the brake a little too early here,” Gottlieb said. “March was always going to be a difficult month. People want to lean forward, but we really should have waited till April. The fact that we’ve done that now probably means that we’re probably going to plateau. Maybe we’ll see an uptick in certain parts of the country.”

Watch above, via CBS.