Gallup Poll Shows 3-Way Tie For 2012 GOP Nomination; Race Wide Open

by Mark Joyella | 5:24 pm, February 23rd, 2011

» 28 comments

Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters clearly have not picked a frontrunner. According to a new Gallup poll, Republicans kinda sorta like three potential GOP nominees: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin, who split essentially even (Huckabee in front with 18 percent, and Romney and Palin tied with 16 percent). They are the only Republicans in the poll to hit double digits, ahead of a long list of others, including New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (1%), Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4%) and Newt Gingrich (9%).

The top three have remained consistent through the last few Gallup surveys, but the pollsters say Huckabee has added strength:

Gallup had previously asked Republicans for their 2012 nomination preferences in November and September.

Those earlier polls also showed a top tier consisting of Romney, Palin, and Huckabee, though Huckabee trailed Romney (by a statistically significant margin) and Palin in the September poll. Huckabee’s support has increased in each of the subsequent updates, and his total six-point gain since September is the largest for any of the candidates to date.

Most of the other candidates are now within one or two percentage points of their September and November estimates. Two exceptions are Romney, whose current 16% is a bit lower (though still within the margin of error) than his 19% readings last year, and Newt Gingrich, whose current 9% of the vote is down from 13% in November but the same as September.

Here are the Gallup numbers:

Gallup Poll, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin

Judge Mental

Who cares at this point? It’s all about name recognition until they actually announce and get out on the campaign trail. Herman Cain is the only one who’s announced that he’s running. Pence and Thune have announced that they definitely are not. As has Christie.
http://www.swissarmyjew.com Keeva

This is just fluff for the pundits to use as filler between commercials. As journalists get lazier (both sides of the media!) we will see more of this acceleration of election cycles since it is easy reporting and requires minimal work.

Judge Mental said:
Who cares at this point? It’s all about name recognition until they actually announce and get out on the campaign trail. Herman Cain is the only one who’s announced that he’s running. Pence and Thune have announced that they definitely are not. As has Christie.

Exactly.
BFD

“Gallup Poll Shows 3-Way Tie For 2012 GOP Nomination”

Hahaha…the Mormon, the Moron and the Accomplice to Murder.

To quote Bush….”Bring ‘em on”. lolol
http://www.facebook.com/people/Laurence-Glavin/100000568386394 Laurence Glavin

The Boston Globe ran a front-page story today (02/23) about the tight spot in which the Republican Party finds itself. Nineteen states are rushing their primaries so that many of them could take place before March 1st. In response, New Hampshire may push up its election to late 2011 to keep its first-in-the-nation primary status intact. That would involve shuffling by first caucus state Iowa. Anybody who waits much longer may be shut out of an opportunity to be the sacrifical lamb in 2012.
illusive man

The republican’s will need someone better to topple this puppet master-in-chief.
Gasket

A good read here.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/assessing-the-republican-presidential-field/
TangledThorns

I hope Sarah Palin runs as she’ll beat Obama easily. We need a real patriotic leader in the White House.
Gasket

TangledThorns said:
I hope Sarah Palin runs as she’ll beat Obama easily. We need a real patriotic leader in the White House.

You are delusional. Sarah “I hate this damn job” Palin would get CRUSHED by Obama.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021111_2012_election_web.pdf
SpineCrusher

Go Huckabee!!!

We’ll be a Theocracy before you know it!! YEAAAYYY!!!
da-wdc

You’ll notice the only thing possible GOP candidates seem to be announcing at the moment is that they won’t run.

The GOP doesn’t see much chance of winning this cycle and that’s why most serious candidates are going to sit this one out.

They’ll probably nominate Tim Pawlenty and try to lose respectably.
gar

BFD said:
“Gallup Poll Shows 3-Way Tie For 2012 GOP Nomination” Hahaha…the Mormon, the Moron and the Accomplice to Murder. To quote Bush….”Bring ‘em on”. lolol

Want to make a bet it’s none of the above. It’s good to throw the dogs off the scent, and it’s fun watching you morons chase the next name that comes out. I’m sure BFD has his insults for everyone on the list.
ImNotBlue

@ Gasket

The 2012 Election will depend on some external factors… the economy, gas prices, and the Middle East are shaping up to be huge issues. While the Republican candidate has a clear uphill battle, Obama may find himself in a position where he’s only trying to defend himself from himself, not from any Republican. The Republican will just have to say enough to look like he/she knows what they’re talking about, and let Obama beat himself.

However, if those issues turn around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP bails on the White House, and instead dedicates more of it’s resources towards the Senate and House. If they believe they can’t win, a two house majority could be equally important… and wait until 2016 to bring out a new guy.
BFD

im sure this isnt the first time the foul mouthed palin has been caught in a 3-way if you know what i mean…
ImNotBlue

@ BFD

We know what you mean… but nobody cares.
http://www.libertarianism.com/ Jack Burns

LOL If this is all the Repubics have. Us Libertarians are going to have great recruitment in 2012 when Obama gets re-elected!
Yoda002

None/ no opinion got a very high score, so it looks like there isn’t too much excitement out there. I’m rooting for Mama Grizzly, but I don’t think she is running she likes to campaign, but not govern. Plus she is making a lot of money sitting on the sidelines pretending she is a candidate.
ImNotBlue

@ Yoda

You say that like it’s a bad thing… like you just discovered the job of being a pundit.
Gasket

ImNotBlue said:
@ Gasket

The 2012 Election will depend on some external factors… the economy, gas prices, and the Middle East are shaping up to be huge issues. While the Republican candidate has a clear uphill battle, Obama may find himself in a position where he’s only trying to defend himself from himself, not from any Republican. The Republican will just have to say enough to look like he/she knows what they’re talking about, and let Obama beat himself.

However, if those issues turn around, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP bails on the White House, and instead dedicates more of it’s resources towards the Senate and House. If they believe they can’t win, a two house majority could be equally important… and wait until 2016 to bring out a new guy.

You see, when you make level headed rebuttals like this, I don’t have to be nasty. I do agree with you here. 2012 will be the choice between two evils. It all rests on who the GOP nominates which will determine the direction the independent voter gravitates to. The Nate Silver article I linked to above explains why the 2012 GOP field at this juncture is troubling. (Please, folks read it. It’s quite objective.) David Frum has also some good insight on the matter. In my opinion, it all boils down to the economy. I don’t think the middle east will be anything solid to beat Obama with. Much easier beating him up on domestic policy. It was successful in 2010, I don’t see why the GOP would tread into foreign matters considering the field against him. An incumbent POTUS on foreign matters (intelligence) would always hold their own simply by knowing much more than the challenger does. It’s a risk trying to stump the POTUS here especially in debates. Employment (jobs), health care and taxes (+debt/deficits) in my opinion will be the BIG topics come Nov 2012.
ROCKSTEADY

TangledThorns said:
I hope Sarah Palin runs as she’ll beat Obama easily. We need a real patriotic leader in the White House.

HAHHAHHAHA You should go on the road with this act!
http://gordonbloyershow.com gordonbloyershow

The libs shooting off their mouth here are just stupid. Obama wasn’t showing up in the polls at this time before he was elected. There are so many republicans that can beat him next year and they are even on the charts yet. $4.00 gas will sink him forever. His failure to drill for oil and the loss of the Middle East is about to hit him big time.

Obama is a joke.
Gasket

gordonbloyershow said:
The libs shooting off their mouth here are just stupid. Obama wasn’t showing up in the polls at this time before he was elected. There are so many republicans that can beat him next year and they are even on the charts yet. $4.00 gas will sink him forever. His failure to drill for oil and the loss of the Middle East is about to hit him big time.

Obama is a joke.

You idiot. Read the article I linked to earlier. You can READ….right?

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama was quite well-known by early 2007 — and quite well-liked, with 45 percent taking a favorable view of him against 20 percent unfavorable. John Edwards was also reasonably well-known and reasonably popular. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, triggered a much more polarized reaction: almost everyone had an opinion about her, and it split right about down the middle. Still, Democrats could not have had a lot of complaints about what they had to pick from.

Obama had the highest approval INDEX (+25) of the Democratic candidates as early as 2007.
writer

im sure this isnt the first time the foul mouthed palin has been caught in a 3-way if you know what i mean…

BFD calls someone foul mouthed. Maybe Beck is right. This has to be one of the signs of the End of Days.
http://gordonbloyershow.com gordonbloyershow

Gasket said:
You idiot. Read the article I linked to earlier. You can READ….right? Obama had the highest approval INDEX (+25) of the Democratic candidates as early as 2007.

No one reads your posts. They just put thumbs down on them. Why read anything from a clown calling himself Gasket?
Pablo

gordonbloyershow said:
The libs shooting off their mouth here are just stupid. Obama wasn’t showing up in the polls at this time before he was elected. There are so many republicans that can beat him next year and they are even on the charts yet. $4.00 gas will sink him forever. His failure to drill for oil and the loss of the Middle East is about to hit him big time.

Obama is a joke.

And if Iraq blows up on him? Game over. That’s about the only thing he’s ever taken credit for instead of blaming Bush (aside from ObamaCare, which is going down.) He’s making Jimmy Carter look good.
Truth

There isn’t a soul on that list that could could beat Obama today. Depending on what happens in the next 12 months Romney is the only possible candidate that could swing the independents. The others are to far to the right.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Jay-Adler/1420650301 Jay Adler

The ticket I like for a win as a life long Republican is Romney-Huckabee. Mitt Romney is not only devoid of some baggage he once carried but he is pulling ahead in preliminary polls. He is dominant and authoritative unlike we have seen recently, well spoken, fit in an obese society and most prominently a CEO. The CEO argument failed in 2010 in California where two lost. California is a blue state and some of the voters had some imagination that pot could win at the ballot. There was a scandal and other circumstances and the election could easily have gone the other way. Huckabee, an Evangelical Republican candidate could wipe up the south while Romney cleans up
north of the line. As far as Sarah Palin, she is in this big time provided an oil crisis remains and people want to go for the Sherrif. Sarah Palin is the tough, hard resolve that we may need which is why I implied thatthings would have to be worse than they are now for her to win. I don’t think the nasty remarks she gets on the Internet are adults. Do you notice as she gets more powerful, less vitriol is aimed at her.
Truth

Jay Adler said:
As far as Sarah Palin, she is in this big time provided an oil crisis remains and people want to go for the Sherrif.

She lacks experience and she has pissed off to many people which somewhat demonstrates her inexperience. She needs to get down where the action is and get a taste of life in the real world. She wouldn’t last through the first debate. She is not that quick on her feet.
X-3

If the Republicans want to win the White House, they will nominate John Huntsman Jr.