Poll Shows Trump Risks Alienating His MAGA Base If He Pardons Ghislaine Maxwell

AP Photo/John Minchillo, File

A new poll from The Economist/YouGov revealed that the suggestion President Donald Trump might pardon Ghislaine Maxwell, the former girlfriend and accomplice of deceased convicted sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein, is extraordinarily unpopular — even with Trump’s base.

The “Epstein files” have become a major thorn in the side for the Trump administration for weeks. The president, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and other top White House officials have faced growing criticism over the failure to produce the files that Bondi and other cabinet appointees repeatedly promised. The fallout has emboldened Trump’s political opponents and reignited bitter internecine MAGA civil wars — messily playing out on social media and leading to calls for Trump to fire or demand the resignation of Bondi and other administration officials. Many of the calls for the release of the Epstein files are coming from other Republicans.

Trump has sought to downplay his friendship with Epstein, furiously denouncing him as a “creep” and claiming the two were never close — claims that have been contradicted by a steadily-unearthed series of photos, videos, and witnesses who were around the two men years ago. However, regarding Maxwell, Trump has repeatedly made supportive comments that he “wish[es] her well” and was “not looking for anything bad for her.”

Maxwell is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence after she was convicted of one count of sex trafficking a minor, one count of transporting a minor with the intent to engage in criminal sexual activity, and three counts of conspiracy. Multiple victims testified at Maxwell’s trial about how she not only recruited young women and underage girls to have sex with Epstein and other older men, but that Maxwell also sometimes assaulted them herself. There has been some chatter among Trump-friendly media that sounds like an effort to rehabilitate Maxwell for the MAGA audience and Trump has refused to rule out granting her a pardon, but polling shows this continues to be extremely unpopular even with his most diehard supporters.

The latest data from The Economist/YouGov’s tracking polls shows Trump’s approval rating continues to drift to historically low levels, matching other recent surveys, and shines a spotlight on how fraught the Epstein issue is for the president.

The poll was conducted from July 25 through 28 — just as Trump was publicly floating the idea of a pardon for Maxwell — among 1,777 U.S. adult citizens, selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of the U.S. adult citizen population and “weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status,” according to YouGov’s polling memo. The overall sample’s margin of error was about 3.5%.

Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Epstein matter almost three times as much as they approve, 61% to 21%. The breakdown of responses was 7% strongly approve, 14% somewhat approve, 14% somewhat disapprove, 47% strongly disapprove, and 18% said they were not sure.

Republicans were still more likely to approve than disapprove of Trump’s handling but a sizable minority still said they disapproved (28% to 49% who approved) or were unsure (23%). Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved, 90%, with only 5% approving and 5% not sure. Trump lost independents by a wide margin on this issue as well, with 64% disapproving, 24% approving, and 12% not sure.

When poll respondents were asked if they thought the government was covering up evidence it had about Epstein, two-thirds said yes, including 86% of Democrats, 45% of Republicans, and 69% of Independents. Only 12% of Americans don’t think there’s a coverup and 21% said they were unsure, which broke down to 7% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans, and 4% of Independents saying there was no cover up, and 10% of Democrats, 29% of Republicans, and 24% of Independents saying they were unsure.

A strong majority of Americans (82%) also want to see the government release all documents it has related to the Epstein case, including 91% of Democrats, 76% of Republicans, and 80% of Independents.

A plurality of poll respondents said they think Trump was “involved” in Epstein’s crimes, with 46% saying they do, 32% saying they don’t, and 23% not sure. As expected, Democrats overwhelmingly believe Trump was involved (80% said yes, only 5% said no, and 15% weren’t sure), but Independents also view him with suspicion on this topic. (47% yes, 23% no, 30% unsure).

One number to watch as the weeks roll on his how many Republicans maintain their belief Trump wasn’t involved; right now 11% of Republicans said yes, he was involved, 68% said no, and 21% were unsure. Only getting 68% may spell trouble for Trump, as he has enjoyed unwavering support from Republicans on many other issues, often getting 90% approval or more.

Even stronger bipartisan opposition comes when poll respondents were asked about Trump potentially pardoning Maxwell. Overall, only 4% of Americans were in favor of a pardon for the convicted sex trafficker, 64% were opposed, and 32% not sure.

That single-digit support for a pardon for Maxwell carried across all partisan groups. Among both Democrats and Republicans, only 5% supported a pardon, and only 3% of Independents were in favor. Strong majorities from all parties were opposed (59% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 60% 0f Independents). Even in the unlikely event Trump could somehow win over all of the “not sure” respondents (37% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats, and 37% of Independents), he’d still be underwater across the board.

One other poll question highlighted why Trump may be having trouble winning over even Republicans on Epstein-related matters: Americans simply do not believe his claims that he was never close with the notorious sexual predator.

When asked, “When the relationship between Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein was at its closest, do you think they were…?” 43% said close friends, 15% said friends but not close, 24% acquaintances, 2% strangers, 1% enemies, and 15% not sure. In all partisan categories, more than three-quarters said Trump was close friends, friends, or acquaintances with Epstein; a majority of Democrats and Independents believed they were close friends or friends.

Looking at just Republicans, 11% believed Trump and Epstein were close friends, 22% friends but not close, 46% acquaintances, 5% strangers, 0% enemies, and 16% not sure.