Nate Silver Argues Harris Faces ‘Tougher’ Task Than Clinton Or Biden: ‘Inflation and Immigration Are Big Deals… Plus Biden F*cked Up’

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Elections analyst Nate Silver argued that Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris faces a “tougher environment” than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 or Joe Biden did in 2020 on Thursday, citing a number of reasons why that is including the fact that “Biden fucked up” by not getting out of the 2024 race sooner than he did.

Responding to an article in The New Republic asserting that “Harris should should be trouncing Trump, and the fact that they’re neck and neck is at least partially her fault,” Silver expressed his objection.

“I get annoyed by claims like this because they use ‘should’ in the ‘ought’ sense of the is/ought distinction. The two prior Trump elections were close in the Electoral College. This one is, too. Maybe it ‘should’ be easy to trounce Trump, but it isn’t,” wrote Silver.

“And Harris probably faces a tougher environment than Clinton ’16 or Biden ’20,” he continued. “Incumbent parties around the world are struggling, cultural pendulum swinging conservative, inflation and immigration are big deals to voters, plus Biden fucked up and should have quit sooner.”

And Harris probably faces a tougher environment than Clinton ’16 or Biden ’20. Incumbent parties around the world are struggling, cultural pendulum swinging conservative, inflation and immigration are big deals to voters, plus Biden fucked up and should have quit sooner.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2024

According to Silver’s model, the race between Trump and Harris is about as close as it possibly could be. It gives Harris a 50.3% chance and Trump a 49.4% chance of winning the Electoral College.

While a toss-up might not be ideal for Democrats going into election day, there’s little doubt that their prospects are better than her than they would have been with Biden. On June 26, Silver’s model indicated Trump the favorite in the race between himself and Biden, giving the Republican nominee a 66% chance of retaking the White House — and that was before Biden’s disastrous debate performance one day later.