Trump Holds on to Lead in Post-Guilty Verdict Swing State Polls, Now Pushing Biden in Virginia

Isaac SchorrJun 7th, 2024, 8:55 am
 

(Photo by Dan Hallman/Invision/AP)

Former President and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is still leading in several swing states and is now pushing President Joe Biden in Virginia according to several Fox News polls conducted in the days since Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records last week.

If the general election were to be held today, Trump beat Biden by 5 points in Nevada (50%-45%) and Arizona (51%-46%), 4 points in Florida (50%-46%) and would tie him in Virginia (48%-48%), the series of surveys indicates.

Despite the fact that Old Dominion is where Trump performs the worst, it’s the result there that should be most encouraging to his campaign and disquieting to Biden’s. In 2020, Biden coasted to a 10-point victory in the state, which was considered a safe Democratic stronghold. Now, it’s in play, potentially forcing the Biden campaign to divert valuable resources there.

Notably, Biden also prevailed in Arizona (49.36%-49.06%) and Nevada (50.06%-47.67%) in 2020, while Trump came out on top in Florida.

The swing state polls demonstrating Trump’s continued strength in the race despite his criminal conviction come on the heels of a pair of national surveys that pointed to the same conclusion. A Morning Consult tracking poll found that Trump still carries a 1-point lead (44%-43%) over Biden while another poll from Emerson University found that he leads 46%-45% in a head-to-head matchup, but extends his lead to 6 points (44%-38%) when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included among respondents’ options.

While Biden’s campaign has expressed a desire to exploit Trump’s status as a felon, polls have shown that his conviction has not yet had much effect on his polling numbers, in part because of a perception that the case brought against him was politically motivated.

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