Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Virginia From Leans McAuliffe to Leans Youngkin

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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Monday described Virginia’s gubernatorial race as now leaning in favor of Republican Glenn Youngkin, saying there were “indications” it “could be the closest” in 30 years.

“This Virginia gubernatorial race is one of the most vexing races we can remember,” Miles Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote for Sabato’s University of Virginia election forecasting blog. “Terry McAuliffe retains the advantage of running in a state that is clearly trending Democratic. But Glenn Youngkin has many significant advantages of his own, which may outweigh Virginia’s Democratic lean.”

No Republican has won a gubernatorial election in the state since 2009 when Bob McDonnell won by a massive 17-point margin. McDonnell faced a federal indictment after he left office. His conviction was eventually overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court, but contributed to trouble for the GOP in subsequent years.

Surveys showed Youngkin gaining ground on McAuliffe, who already served one term as the state’s Democratic governor, after McAuliffe doubled down on assertions that parents had a limited role to play in their children’s education. Kondik and Coleman wrote that it was conceivable that one of the candidates could win the Nov. 2 election by an exceedingly small margin.

“The more interesting result would be if the race broke clearly one way or the other — as in, if either candidate won by more than a few points,” the authors wrote. “A Youngkin win by several points would offer confirmation that the political environment has broken wide open against Democrats. Meanwhile, if McAuliffe wins by several points, it may indicate that Biden’s poor approval ratings are not as much of a drag on Democrats as one might otherwise think.

“We’re moving [Virginia] from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican,” they added. “Our sense is that the race has been moving toward Youngkin, in large part because of the political environment. McAuliffe’s Trump-centric campaign also just doesn’t seem as potent in a non-federal race with the former president no longer in the White House.”

However, they noted, “A victory by either candidate remains on the table.”