New Texas Senate Poll Shows Talarico Clobbering Paxton in Districts Trump Won by Double Digits

(AP Photo/LM Otero and Eric Gay)

A new poll of the Texas Senate race has some more good news for State Rep. James Talarico (D), showing him with a solid lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in three congressional districts that President Donald Trump carried by double digits.

Pollsters at Texas Southern University examined Texas’ 15th, 28th, and 34th congressional districts, all in the southern part of Texas and considered to be the most competitive in the state. The poll was conducted from Aug. 18 to 22 among likely voters for the November general election, who were identified by using a likely voter screen and past election participation.

The pollsters surveyed 700 likely voters in both TX-15 and TX-34, resulting in a margin of error of +/- 3.70%, and 600 likely voters in TX-28, with a margin of error of +/- 4.00%).

In TX-15, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, 50% of respondents chose Talarico and 42% Paxton; TX-28, which Trump won by 10, was Talarico 51% and Paxton 41%; and TX-34, which Trump won by 10, was Talarico 53% and Paxton 42%.

The TSU poll had positive news for State Rep. Gina Hinojosa’s (D) challenge to incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R), finding her ahead in each of the three districts polled (47% to 44% in TX-15, 48% to 44% in TX-28, and 49% to 45% in TX-34), and for the Democratic congressional candidates as well.

Democrats have not won a major statewide race in Texas since the late 1990s, but several factors have elections prognosticators giving Talarico a solid chance at flipping the seat blue.

Paxton won the primary against the incumbent Republican, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), but it was a contentious battle that burned through campaign funds and put a spotlight on the series of scandals, lawsuits, a bitter divorce from his state senator wife, and other controversies that have dogged Paxton for years.

The AG did score Trump’s endorsement but is still widely viewed as a weaker candidate in the general election due to the seemingly unending parade of messy headlines and the downward drag of Trump and the GOP’s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy.

Earlier this month, Nate Silver released his updated forecast for the November midterms and rated Texas as “Lean D,” designating it as one of his top picks to flip blue.

The Fox News Power Rankings analysis doesn’t view the race quite as rosily for Talarico, but did just shift its prediction from Likely R to Toss Up. The Cook Political Report also rates Texas Senate as a Toss Up.

Silver responded to the new TSU poll by noting that it was “[r]are to see these districts polled,” but noted that his model already had two of them rated “as Lean D despite their Trumpiness.”

“A rebound here is also essential to any pathway that Talarico has to victory,” Silver added.

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