New Study Looking at ‘Excess’ Deaths Finds Pandemic Death Toll Likely 3 Times Higher Than Reported

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As most countries move toward a return to normalcy and relax Covid-19 public health restrictions, a new study published Thursday in The Lancet finds that the toll of the pandemic is likely much higher than reported.

The new research suggests that the actual death toll from the pandemic is closer to 18.2 million people worldwide, which is three times higher than the World Health Organization’s official tally of roughly 6 million as of the end of 2021.

In the United States, the researchers posit that 1.13 million Americans died due to the pandemic, compared to the official 960,000 tally.

The study titled, “Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21,” bases its findings on the number of “excess deaths” in each country around the world.

“Excess deaths” are modeled based on the amount of “expected” deaths in years unaffected by Covid-19 and modeling the differences in mortality rates for 2020 and 2021 both with and without Covid-19. The additional rise in mortality rate in those years, minus the official Covid-19 death toll accounts for what the authors call “excess deaths.”

“This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021,” the study says in its summary.

CBS health reporter Alexander Tin notes, “Many of the additional deaths over the past two years can be directly linked to cases of COVID-19. However, the study’s authors say a variety of other factors — ranging from underreporting of infections to the disease’s strain on hospitals — may account for the unprecedented number of additional deaths during the pandemic.”

So, while the study did attempt to account for other factors in the increase in mortality rates, between 2020 and 2022, its authors note that Covid-19 may not be the only factor.

The researchers found that Russia and Mexico had the highest rate of “excess deaths,” but added that some southern U.S. states ranked among to top as well.

“For every 100,000 residents, an estimated 329.7 additional deaths occurred in Mississippi during the pandemic, the highest of any state. In the study’s global estimates, only 21 nations exceeded 300 excess deaths per 100,000 citizens,” Tin notes.

The study’s authors conclude that more research must be done to better understand the Covid-19 pandemic’s toll around the world, arguing “further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.”