Shocking Poll Shows 12-Point Post-Debate Swing Toward Trump in New Hampshire

Isaac SchorrJul 2nd, 2024, 9:27 am
 

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A new survey of 1,700 registered voters conducted by St. Anselm College in New Hampshire suggests last week’s debate between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump may have gone a long way toward swinging the state away from the former and toward the latter.

According to the poll, Trump now holds a two-point lead (44%-42%) over Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is mounting an independent bid for the presidency after initially running in the Democratic primary, earned the support of just 4% of voters.

The results represent a stunning turnaround from the last St. Anselm survey conducted in December. Back then, Biden held the catbird seat by a commanding 10 points.

There is some evidence to suggest that Biden’s performance in last week’s debate is partially responsible for the shift, but there is also evidence that the electorate was already moving toward Trump. Fifty-four percent of voters aware of the debate indicated that Trump had prevailed in it, while just 6% said that Biden had won.

Still, 81% of respondents said that the debate wouldn’t have any effect on their decision at the ballot box.

Neil Levesque, the director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm, declared that the poll shows “that New Hampshire is really a competitive state in the presidential election.”

“Events like a presidential debate like we saw last week are pivot points in politics, and at this point, with the amount of change we’ve seen with the presidential contest, certainly the debate had an effect,” he added.

The poll carries a 2.3% margin of error. Responses were collected between June 28 and 29.

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