Ben Shapiro Warns JD Vance Wouldn’t ‘Overperform Trump’ With Any Demographic

Vice President JD Vance would come with some serious drawbacks if he’s the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2028, Ben Shapiro warned this week.

Shapiro shared his thoughts on 2028 and potential candidates during a chat this week with Patrick Bet-David on The PBD Podcast. Shapiro, the founder of Daily Wire, argued he doesn’t see many realistic options beyond Vance, especially if President Donald Trump backs him, dismissing the chances an “outsider” could have to break through the MAGA base in primaries.

The disadvantage this would leave Republicans with, he added, is that Vance likely can’t “outperform” Trump with any group of voters.

He argued:

The biggest thing about JD, I don’t think winning the primaries, I think he’s going to have real trouble in the general and I think that is because if you look at Donald Trump’s election in 2024, the right likes to tell ourselves that Donald Trump won this broad, sweeping election in 2024. That was not a broad, sweeping victory.

That was a narrow victory by historical standards. He won the swing states by a relatively limited number of votes, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. He pulled out Arizona, he pulled out Georgia, and he pulled out North Carolina…okay, please name the group that JD Vance will overperform with versus Donald Trump. I do not think there is a single group that you can name in American politics in which he will overperform Trump.

Shapiro noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, by comparison, could likely outdraw Trump when it comes to both Hispanics and women. He said he’s doubtful Rubio will run, however, calling him a “risk-averse” politician who may not see a clear enough path to run on his own or join a ticket with Vance.

“Is JD Vance going to outperform Trump with Hispanics? No way. Is he going to outperform Trump with women? I don’t think so. Is he going to outperform Trump with blue collar voters, which is sort of his bread and butter? I don’t think it’s possible to outperform Trump with blue collar voters,” Shapiro said.

Bet-David asked whether Vance could pull support from independents and Libertarians and gain the support of some public figures who have grown more critical of the administration over the Iran war, the Epstein files, and more, naming Joe Rogan, comedian Theo Von, and Libertarian pundit Dave Smith as examples.

After joking there are “two” Libertarians in the U.S. and their influence is a “myth,” Shapiro argued winning over people like Von would still be working from the same base Trump already previously won over.

He also predicted Rogan, who has endorsed Libertarians like Gary Johnson in 2016 and Ron Paul in 2012, would switch over and support the Democrats — as long as it’s not California Governor Gavin Newsom (D). Rogan previously ditched living in California for Texas, and he’s plenty vocal about Newsom’s lacking leadership, homelessness in the state, high taxes, etc.

“I think it is far less likely that Rogan would get behind JD than he gets behind the Democrat, as long as it’s not Newsom,” Shapiro said about Rogan.

The problem, he added, that Vance will face is that he’ll be aligned with Trump, but also need to run “against” him by distancing himself from policies that have alienated previously vocal supporters.

“JD is both running against Trump and running with Trump. That’s a politically unenviable position for him,” Shapiro said.

Watch above via The PBD Podcast.

Jason Cohen contributed to this report.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!