Latest Fox News Power Rankings Shift 17 Congressional Races — All in Democrats’ Favor

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

The latest Fox News Power Rankings once again had bad news for the GOP, moving two Senate races, 15 House races, and two gubernatorial races, all in favor of Democrats.

The updated election forecast from Fox News joins a growing list predicting good news for Democrats in November. Previous Power Rankings updates moved four House races to the left and the Senate election in normally-deep-red Texas from Likely R to Toss Up; Nate Silver also rated the race as Lean D. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, shifted three key gubernatorial races to the left and a number of House and Senate races towards the Democrats as well.

Tuesday’s report by Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa began by highlighting several polls that “suggest that we’re heading for a ‘blue wave’ like the one Democrats rode eight years ago,” with Democrats “enjoying their widest polling lead of the year.”

“Republicans currently hanging by a thread in the House, most of the work has already been done for Team Blue,” wrote Numa, laying out the math:

Voters say they prefer the Democrat to the Republican in their district by an average of 7 points in new polls (49%-42%).

Democrats perform even better among likely voters, with an 11-point average lead (53%-42%).

That’s a larger and more consistent lead than the GOP had this time four years ago.

Looking at specific races, Fox News evaluated Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) re-election big against challenger Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) as increasingly likely, moving from Lean D to Likely D.

Kansas “hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years,” but pastor Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee, earned points in Fox News’ evaluation, shifting the race against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) from Likely R to Lean R.

Hamilton was viewed as a “star recruit” for Kansas Democrats, wrote Numa, and his campaign messaging focuses “on gas and diesel prices, which have an outsize impact in the rural and agriculture-heavy Midwest.” Besides, Numa added, Kansas “isn’t allergic to statewide Dems: incumbent governor Laura Kelly is one, and she won in both 2018 and 2022.”

Fox News also updated the rankings of 15 House contests, all in Democrats’ favor.

Screenshot via Fox News.

“The shifts are largely a product of the generic ballot polling,” wrote Numa, with Democrats enjoying a buffer with likely voters of 8 to 13 points that “will be too much for GOP campaigns in some highly competitive areas to overcome,” even some where Trump won in 2024, an increasingly common story around the country.

Another factor pulling races to the left, Numa reported, was Hispanic voters shifting back to Democrats, “from D+12 in the 2024 presidential race to D+29 in Fox’s latest generic ballot survey.”

This was a significant factor in seven House races in Florida and one in Texas that Fox News moved to the Democrats. One of those candidates, incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), shared the Fox News tweet and highlighted his race in Florida’s 25th congressional district.

The governor’s races in Texas and Alaska also moved leftward. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is still favored in most election forecasts, but State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) is mourning a surprisingly tough challenge despite being substantially outgunned financially and having far lower name recognition than Abbott after his years as the Lone Star State’s governor and attorney general.

This year was Abbott’s “toughest re-election challenge yet” in Numa’s assessment and data centers were having a major influence. Fox News moved the race from Likely R to Lean R, noting Abbott’s “important structural advantages” but still, “polls keep showing a close race.”

Evaluation of Alaska’s races is a bit more complicated due to ranked choice voting, and after running the calculations on how voters are likely to vote on their second, third, and fourth ballots, Fox News moved the gubernatorial race from Lean R to Toss-Up. Incumbent Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited, and the election is a battle between Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, and Republicans Dave Brunson, Bernadette Wilson, and Treg Taylor.

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