NEW POLL: Elon Musk’s America Party Would Swing the 2026 Election From GOP to Democrats on Generic Ballot
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
Elon Musk’s newly-launched independent political party, the “America Party,” poses a real risk of being a spoiler for Republicans in the 2026 midterms, according to a new poll by Echelon Insights.
Musk’s bromance with President Donald Trump developed cracks during the tumultuous tenure of his work with DOGE and then exploded over Musk’s vociferous opposition to the Trump-backed “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act. The world’s richest man and the world’s most powerful man have used the social media platforms they own to lob threats, both in words and tactics, at each other. Musk has escalated the feud to the point of accusing Trump and some of his key allies of being in the Epstein files and threatening to use his immense wealth to punish the GOP at the ballot box, going beyond the earlier threat of funding primary challengers to take out Republicans who voted for the bill to actually forming his own political party.
On July 4, Musk tweeted a poll asking if people wanted the America Party, and the votes (arguably swayed by the fact that he owns the platform and has over 200 million followers) were over 65% in favor.
Two days later, Musk declared, “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!”
“When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy,” he added. “Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”
Unsurprisingly, the announcement drew angry rebukes from Trump and his supporters. But is Musk’s party actually a threat to the GOP?
According to Echelon Insights’ latest poll, it very well could be. In a survey conducted from July 10 through 14 from 1,084 likely voters matched to the voter files, the results of the general congressional ballot showed that the America Party might not be able to win, but it did pose a real risk of being a spoiler for Republicans.
The margin of error for the poll was +/- 3.6 percentage points.
When asked “if the election for Congress were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?” 48% said definitely or probably the Republican candidate and 47% said definitely or probably the Democratic candidate. The specific categories broke down as follows:
Definitely the Republican candidate: 30%
Probably the Republican candidate: 17%
Lean, the Republican candidate: 1%
Lean, the Democratic candidate: 1%
Probably the Democratic candidate: 13%
Definitely the Democratic candidate: 33%
Unsure: 6%
Next, pollsters asked, “How much have you seen, read, or heard about the America Party recently founded by Elon Musk?” For that question, 44% said a lot or some and 53% said a little or nothing. The specific answers were as follows:
A lot: 15%
Some: 29%
A little: 32%
Nothing: 21%
Unsure: 3%
The pollsters then asked the question again about a generic congressional ballot, but this time with the America Party as a choice. The Democratic candidate was the choice of 45% of respondents, the Republican candidate got 41%, and the America Party candidate got 5%, with 10% unsure.
It’s notable that this poll showed the America Party peeling off enough votes to flip the generic congressional ballot from Republicans to Democrats, even though over half of the voters who were polled said they had heard little or nothing about it. Besides the digital megaphone Musk purchased when he bought Twitter a few years ago, his billions of dollars give him the ability to blanket America with television, radio, and online ads to get his message out, if he so chooses.
