Race to the Midterms: Here’s Everything You Need to Know About Tonight’s Key House and Senate Races

Caleb HoweJun 5th, 2018, 6:29 pm
 

California Primary Election 2018

It’s primary day in races across the country, and a chance to get a look at what is ahead in the consequential Trump midterm elections this November. There are some key races to watch tonight, in districts and states that could shift the balance of power in Washington, and a few things you should know about each.

The Democrats need to flip just 23 GOP seats to take control of the House. They’re hoping a lot of those will be in California. But Republicans have a lot of reason to doubt Dems can pull that off. In fact, Republicans think they can flip some (D) seats in the Golden State.

Everyone is watching. Everyone.

Here is a breakdown of some the most important races, by state.

CALIFORNIA

There are a slew of races in California Tuesday. Today will determine who is running in the Governor’s race, a huge number of statewide seats, and all the state’s 53 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Keep in mind, California is a Jungle primary, meaning the top two vote getters will go on to election day, irrespective of their party affiliation. That can be good or bad news, and this year may see some democrats locked out in some swing districts.

Governor:

Front-runner Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco, leads by healthy margins across the board, with a RealClearPolitics average of +13.3. The most recent YouGov poll has Newsom up +16 at 30% over rivals John H. Cox (R) at 14%, Travis Allen (R) at 12%, John Chiang (D) at 9%, Antonio Villaraigosa (D) at 8%, and Delaine Eastin (D) at just 4%.

Newsom obviously has national name recognition, very visibly opposing and criticizing President Trump. A lot of his ad campaign has focused on that point, especially highlighting the Trump ties of top rival John Cox. Cox was endorsed by Trump, and Newsom has focused on this a lot. Cynically, some view Newsom’s focus as a way to boost Cox for the number two spot over popular former mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa, who has declined in recent polls from a once top 3 spot. It’s too early to say for sure, but it certainly won’t surprise anyone if the two candidates coming out of the primary and facing off in November are Newsom and Cox.

49th Congressional District (CA-49):

This seat is up for grabs following the retirement of Republican Darrell Issa. Prior to redistricting, this was numbered the 48th district, and Issa succeeded Republican Ron Packard, who served the district for nine years after himself succeeding a Republican way back in 1982 (interestingly, as a write-in candidate.) Which is to say the seat, though renumbered, has been in Republican hands for a long time.

Election analysis site Unlikely Voter says of the district:

“The 49th District is primarily in northern San Diego county, including the city of Oceanside, but it also straddles the county line, reaching into Orange County to the north. San Diego and Orange are of course the most Republican-friendly large counties in the state, with Orange County in particular being well known for a traditional small-government, Don’t-Tread-On-Me conservative libertarianism, aptly led by the Orange County Register editorial line.”

The district is also home to Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, as well as Marine Corps Recruit Depot (MCRD) San Diego (or as we Parris Island Marines call it, “Hollywood”.)

Issa barely won his set the last time around, though, and Democrats put a big effort into the race this time. Here’s more from Neil Stevens at Unlikely Voter:

Of the candidates running, there are four Republicans and four Democrats seen as the most credible contenders to make it out of the June 5 jungle primary. Together, they have spent 15.3 million dollars, making it one of the most expensive House primaries ever. That’s how hungry the Democrats and Republicans are, because this seat is a core battleground for 2018 and could swing the majority.

The L.A. Times last month predicted the turnout for today’s race to be about 37% Democratic to 44% Republican. The most recent SurveyUSA poll has Diane Harkey up +13 at 24% over Democrats Doug Applegate and Sara Jacobs, each with 11%. Republican Rocky Chavez finishes out the top four with 8%. FiveThirtyEight noted that Chavez was previously leading among Republicans but was strategically singled out by big money Dems as he was considered moderate and, therefore, more electable.

COOK RATING: R+1 | TOSS-UP REPUBLICAN*

48th Congressional District (CA-48):

This is the big one as far as Democrats are concerned. Incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is a Republican and has a lot of baggage. Last week NBC named him “California’s Most Endangered Republican.”

Rohrabacher has been in office for 30 years. He’s an immigration hawk and Trump Republican through and through. His only potential Republican challenger, former CA Assemblyman Scott Baugh, though formerly a Rohrabacher protege, has been fiercely battling his incumbent erstwhile ally. Meanwhile Democrats have been fiercely targeting Baugh, in a strategic Jungle primary bid to ensure not only that they are on the ballot, but they face the old guard, not the new.

This is not a phantom hope. In April of this year, in a poll commissioned by Democratic challenger Rachel Payne‘s campaign, Baugh was behind all three top Democrat candidates on the ballot in today’s open primary.

COOK RATING: R+4 | TOSS-UP REPUBLICAN

Senate:

Democrat Sen. Diane Feinstein is a national figure, the longest current-serving female Senator, and a ranking member of the Judiciary committee. She’s in no danger in the primary, meaning the race is for second place. Kevin de León, a former state Senator, is the major Democrat challenger on the ticket, and one who could put a little fear in Feinstein’s heart come November.

For Republicans, this means it will probably be a shut-out. Republicans expelled from their convention one candidate for the seat: White nationalist Patrick Little, who at one point was near the top of polling but is recently garnering around 1%. Still, the LA Times argues for not counting chickens, with late polling threat from Republican “dark horse” candidate James P. Bradley.

Bradley is a Coast Guard vet and businessman, and in the latest polling pulled about 7% in the 32 candidate field (versus de Leon’s 11%).

COOK RATING: SOLID DEMOCRATIC

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IOWA

No, there’s never an election day to watch that doesn’t involve Iowa in some way or another, and today’s big day is no exception. Iowa went Republican to the max in 2016, crushing Democrats at every level from local on up. The party has a lot of ground to make up, and they’re trying hard. Especially in two key races.

3rd Congressional District (IA-3):

This is incumbent Republican Rep. David Young‘s district, where he was first elected in 2014. There are three contenders in the Democratic primary race looking to challenge Young: business owner Cindy Axne, former teacher Eddie Mauro, and Democratic operative Pete D’Alessandro.

D’Alessandro worked for Bernie Sanders in 2016, and in turn Sanders has backed him Iowa this year. Still, about a month ago, the Des Moines Register showed him behind his opponents. Reminder here that Sanders was very popular in Iowa in 2018. If you consider he could be involved going forward, it means there’s a lot to watch for Democrats in this district tonight.

COOK RATING: R+1 | LEAN REPUBLICAN

1st Congressional District (IA-1):

A much more competitive race is Iowa’s 1st, where Republican Rep. Rod Blum has served since 2015. This is a four-way race for Democrats, who have a solid chance of flipping the seat this year. FiveThirtyEight is all over this race.

In the 1st District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Emily’s List and several Iowa labor unions are backing state Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the Democratic primary, and she looks like the front-runner: She has raised three times as much money (nearly $1.3 million) as her three Democratic opponents combined, and women have done very well in Democratic primaries so far this cycle. Thomas Heckroth, a former aide to ex-Sen. Tom Harkin, looks like her main competition…”

COOK RATING: D+1 | TOSS-UP REPUBLICAN

Governor:

In order to face Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in November, one Democrat must come out of the primary with at least 35% of the vote. Of the six Democrats listed on the ballot, only five are actually running after state Sen. Nate Boulton withdrew over sexual misconduct allegations.

Top contender Fred Hubbel is now the man looking to break that thirty-five percent barrier. If he can’t, the Democrat primary will go to convention. He faces union leader Cathy Glasson, John Norris, who was an aide to former Gov. Tom Vilsack, former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn, and former Democratic Party Chair Andy McGuire. There isn’t much in the way of polling, but all eyes are on Hubbel.

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ALABAMA

Alabama is basically a lock for Republicans in November, meaning most of the primary election today is a gimme. But there are some eyes on one house race that might shake things up. Not necessarily in favor of Democrats, but definitely in terms of something to behold.

2nd Congressional District (AL-2):

The Washington Post has the scoop on what is going on here, but to summarize, incumbent Republican Rep. Martha Roby is facing a stiff Trumpist challenge in Roy Moore’s state.

On Tuesday, Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.) could become just the second sitting member of Congress to lose her reelection primary, or one of the few incumbents forced into a runoff because she couldn’t get the majority of the vote.Analysts say it’s all because of what she said about President Trump nearly two years ago.

 

“I won’t vote for him” are words that still haunt Roby. She was one of the first Republicans who retracted her support for Trump in the final days of the 2016 presidential election after an “Access Hollywood” tape caught his crude remarks about groping women. She also called on him to drop out of the race.

 

Two years later, Roby is paying the political price for taking that stand. As she aims for a fifth term representing rural southeastern Alabama, she has four primary challengers trying to unseat her Tuesday. Republicans watching the race say she’ll probably be forced into a July runoff with one of them.

That could turn out to be a crazy race to watch, now and for the rest of the year. Again, though, not looking at any Democratic upset here.

Governor:

As with the House, the notable contest for Governor is between Republicans, with Gov. Kay Ivey facing several challenges from the right. This was, for a while, considered competitive, but recent polling has shown an all-but-assured victory for Ivey in the primary. Ivey has to break 50% in order to avoid a run-off, and there are enough candidates to make that a possibility, but an Alabama Daily News survey in May showed Ivey polling around 47%. FiveThirtyEight and Unlikely Voter do not consider this a contest. Still, it bears watching.

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MONTANA

Montana doesn’t pop up a lot on the list of states to watch, but to Republicans and the Trump administration, today’s primary in the state is pretty important. In fact, it may be one of the few Senate races this year that could actually change the makeup of the body.

Senate:

Montana’s Senate race is an important one. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is a big target for Republicans, and the state went for Trump by a convincing 20 points in 2016. On the other hand, Republicans lost the man they’d hoped to challenge Tester when Ryan Zinke joined the Trump administration last year. That makes the primary pretty important. President Trump has made it a mission.

Republicans running for the chance to challenge Tester are lead by Matt Rosendale, a former state senator and current state auditor. He’s backed by the Club for Growth, and has been endorsed by both Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee, among the most conservative members.

Still, businessman Troy Downing (who has an endorsement from Michael Flynn of all people), former Judge Russ Fagg, and combat veteran Troy Downing are all aiming to upset. They have had some success at painting Rosendale as a carpetbagger, and Roll Call reports that things have really heated up in the weeks leading up to today, with a lot of negative advertising and more spending by the Club for Growth, who have targeted Fagg in particular. The outcome of this race will affect a very important Senate run. Keep your eyes on it.

The polls start closing in a few hours, and will go late into the night. We’ll have results when they come in so stay tuned. It’s going to be a big night for cable news, as this is the biggest primary day of the year.

*Note: Cook Ratings are for the election overall, not specific to primary day. PVI is Partisan Voter Index score, which measures how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole.

(Featured hoto by Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images)

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Caleb Howe - Contributing Editor

Caleb Howe is an editor and writer focusing on politics and media. Former managing editor at RedState. Published at USA Today, Blaze, National Review, Daily Wire, American Spectator, AOL News, Asylum, fortune cookies, manifestos, napkins, fridge drawings...