Trump Gains 4 Points to Pull Ahead Nationally in Splashy New NYT/Siena Survey

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris nationally by a single point and has surged by four points in total over the last month, a poll released Sunday by The New York Times/Siena College found.

Meanwhile, Harris is either tied with Trump or leading him in all seven battleground states, according to the survey. While Harris is overperforming Trump in five of the states, both candidates are each within the margin of error in all seven.

The poll, which was conducted from Sep. 3 to Sept. 6, found 48 percent of likely voters supported Trump while 47 percent said they would vote for Harris. A previous Times/Sienna survey showed Harris with a national lead of 49-46.

The Times‘s Nate Cohn commented the survey suggests Harris has “Stalled after a euphoric August.” Cohn wrote:

Is Kamala Harris’s surge beginning to ebb? That’s the question raised by this morning’s New York Times/Siena College poll, which finds Donald J. Trump narrowly ahead of her among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent. To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month.

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There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr. Trump. We never know whether the polls are “right” until the votes are counted. But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top.

Cohn concluded the poll could be an outlier. Nonetheless, Harris might be down nationally in the poll released Sunday but is still leading or statistically tied with him in the seven crucial battleground states.

Screenshot/The New York Times

Trump had slight advantages in Arizona and North Carolina. Harris was slightly leading Trump or tied with him in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The poll reached out to 1,695 registered voters throughout three days last week and reported a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.