CNN’s Elie Honig Predicts Donald Trump Will Remain ‘Untouchable’ In All Key Cases

CNN senior legal analyst and former prosecutor, Elie Honig, joined the Bulwark’s podcast on Thursday and discussed the potential criminal indictments facing former President Donald Trump. Honig, whose book titled — Untouchable: How Powerful People Get Away with It — came out this week, predicts Trump will evade any serious criminal prosecutions resulting from the major cases he’s currently facing.

Toward the end of the podcast, Honig explained why he thinks Attorney General Merrick Garland is unlikely to charge Trump over his retention of classified documents.

Honig noted there is a “very obvious argument that Trump’s conduct appears to be criminal, but Biden’s and Pence’s does not. That said, I do think the atmospherics of it have become much more difficult for Garland, and it’s hard for me to envision Garland saying, on something that are both documents cases in the view of many, ‘I’m going to indict and again seek to imprison the guy who’s running against my boss, but not my boss and not Mike Pence.‘ That’s a tough needle for him.”

“Yeah, I don’t think he’s going to be able to thread that needle. So what do you think is going to happen? It should have happened earlier. It is perhaps too late. What do you think will happen? Will Jack Smith? Will Fani Willis, will they bring criminal charges in the next three or four months?” host Charlie Sykes then asked.

Smith is the special counsel looking into both Trump’s documents case and his actions surrounding Jan. 6th, which Wilis is heading the Fulton County investigation into alleged efforts of voter tampering by Trump in Georgia.

“For you, Charlie, I’ll go briefly into predictions mode, and I’ll phrase this all as more likely than not,” Honig replied, adding:

I’m not saying any of these are locks. More likely than not Fani Willis does indict Donald Trump in the next few months. As I lay out in the book, I think that’s going to be a very difficult case to convert from indictment to conviction.

The special counsels have to recommend what they want to Garland but Garland ultimately has the final say. I believe Jack Smith will recommend indicting on Mar-a-Lago. I say that partially because I know two of the people on Jack Smith’s team. They haven’t told me. I haven’t spoken with them. I don’t know anything, but I know who they are. They were SDNY prosecutors who are supremely aggressive. There’s no way they left their prior gigs to go over and take a huge pay cut and not charge Donald Trump.

“But if Jack Smith does recommend that Merrick Garland can overrule him. So I think it’s likely Smith recommends an indictment on documents. I’m 50/50 on whether Garland goes along with it. I do not think DOJ ends up indicting Trump on January 6th. I think for the reasons I just said. I think Garland could have done it. I think it’s going to be too late,” Honig continued.

“I think he’s going to have the heat taken off him by a Fani Willis indictment. I think it’s going to be much easier for Garland to pass if the state and by the way, he’ll be able to point to that Justice manual I talked about before, which said if someone’s already being prosecuted by another prosecutor for largely the same conduct, that’s a factor against charging,” he added, concluding:

It doesn’t say you should give him a pass, but it says you should wait. So I would be shocked if DOJ charged Trump over January 6th. I think we’re going to see some combination of county-level charges and documents related potential charges. But again, both of those are going to be really difficult.

“So at the end of this, at the end of the day, Donald Trump will effectively still be untouchable. To go back to the title of your book?” Sykes followed up.

“I think that’s where it will come out. I mean, I think there’s a really fascinating political question, Charlie, about whether and I’ve had this discussion with smart people who know this, will an indictment help or hurt him?” Honig replied.

“I mean, on the one hand, people say nothing motivates Donald Trump and his followers like a fight. I mean, remember the day his Mar-a-Lago was searched? He got a surge in support and fundraising. On the other hand, at a certain point are the Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haleys, and their supporters of the world going to say, look, the guy’s carrying one, maybe more indictments into primary season, like enough’s enough. I’m not the political expert, but I understand the debate there,” Honig replied.

“That I think is going to be the key question, because, I mean, I think the theory of the case of many of these Republicans that are running against him, is that something, quote-unquote, something some magical thing will happen that will clear the lane? What could that be?” Sykes replied, adding:

An indictment could go either way. Either the base rallies around him and decides, you know, I’m sorry, we got to stick with the guy through thick and thin, or it simply adds to the Trump fatigue. Like, okay, we love the guy, but there’s just too much baggage and everything. Based on past experience, I’m thinking the rally around seems more likely. But but again, we don’t know. But if I’m building my entire political theory of the case of 2024 on the fact that the Fani Willis indictment is going to take out Donald Trump, I think that feels very naive.

“I agree,” Honig interjected.

“Given the past, given Trump’s track record, and given the way that he will weaponize this,” Sykes concluded.

“I agree with you. And there’s even a chance that Trump goes into the federal courts on that theory that I said before and gets this case thrown out,” Honig replied, arguing that Trump overcoming an indictment will be a vindication that further boosts the former president.

Listen to the clip above and the full podcast here