‘Uh-Oh!’: CNN Data Guru Flags ‘Warning Sign’ for Democrats in Midterms

Democrats may be leading on the generic congressional ballot, but CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that the party’s advantage is well short of the margins that powered previous midterm wave elections – especially given redistricting.

Appearing on CNN News Central on Monday, Enten pointed to recent CNBC and Washington Post polling showing Democrats with an average four-point lead on the national House ballot, a figure he flagged as falling far below the party’s standing ahead of its successful House takeovers in 2006 and 2018.

“They show a big ‘Uh-oh!’ worry sign, at least compared to history,” Enten said, noting Democrats held average generic ballot leads of 12 points in 2006 and 10 points in 2018 before winning control of the chamber.

“Yes, they’re ahead, but they’re ahead – I have to shrink down on the screen – by only four points, which is significantly less than what we saw in 2018 and 2006, when Democrats took back the house,” he continued. “So as I said, this is an ‘uh-oh,’ this is a warning sign.”

Anchor John Berman underscored the narrower margin, quipping, “Because four isn’t 10. And it’s not 12.”

“No, no, they taught me that back in pre-K, that four is not 10 or 12,” Enten replied.

The analyst argued the numbers become more concerning once redistricting is factored in. Republicans’ advantage in congressional maps means Democrats may need to win the national House vote by roughly three to four percentage points just to secure a majority, leaving their current standing with virtually no margin for error, according to Enten.

“You are right on the edge with this four-point lead… right on the edge of even getting that majority,” Enten said, adding that the polling does not suggest Democrats are building an advantage that “guarantees them the House or anything close to a guarantee.”

Enten also pointed to polling among Trump voters to explain why Democrats have struggled to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings.

While Trump’s net approval among his 2024 supporters stood at plus-66, Enten said Republicans held an even larger, 87-point advantage with those same voters in the House ballot.

“There is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters who right now aren’t so hot to trot on Donald Trump but are still very much in the Republican camp,” Enten said.

“It’s interesting, they’re kind of outrunning Trump among Trump voters,” Berman quipped.

Watch above via CNN.

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