Nikki Haley Has One Chance to Grab Headlines and Rise in the Polls. Will She Take It?
L: AP Photo/Mic Smith, R: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Nikki Haley launched her 2024 presidential campaign with all the fanfare typical of a candidate of her stature, but one noticeable caveat permeated conservative media as she did so on Wednesday – the fact that she is widely seen as having no chance at winning the nomination.
Haley’s dismal prospects have less to do with her — she was the popular governor of an early primary state, has a remarkable life story, and strong foreign policy chops to boot — but more about the fact that the Republican primary voter has shown in recent years zero appetite for her brand of politics.
Haley’s message is one of broad appeal, diversifying conservatism, and reembracing America as a beacon of hope for the world – the antithesis of the “America First” nativism and grievance politics of the Trump era.
Ahead of her rally on Wednesday, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) joined Fox Business Network and declared Haley has no natural base in the GOP anymore. “The truth is, where is she gonna get her votes? Trump’s base isn’t leaving him,” Mullin argued.
“She’s not going to bother to go through him. And if she tries to go to his right or tries to go to his left, there isn’t a base there. So I believe in a path to victory. And I just don’t see that path for her,” Mullin added, who has endorsed former President Donald Trump in the primary.
Mullin’s logic is pretty undeniably sound. For well over a decade now, Republican primary voters have shown little enthusiasm for nominating candidates based on electability in general elections. In her speech, Haley stayed mostly positive, but she has been repeating the same line about Republicans losing elections.
“I have a particular message for my fellow Republicans: We’ve lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections,” Haley tweeted after the rally. The message is a veiled shot at Trump and a tepid rebuttal of his stolen 2020 election claims, but certainly doesn’t go far enough to actually win anyone over.
If Haley truly aims to be a competitor in the GOP primary she will need to loudly define herself as a voice of sanity in the party and if going after Trump to do so is a non-starter, she should go after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
In many ways, going after Greene is low-hanging fruit as the controversial congresswoman makes headlines almost daily for her bombastic rhetoric. But, it is the media attention that Greene receives, which is exactly why Haley should target her, regularly and relentlessly calling her out for her more extreme rhetoric.
Haley is not likely to be a fundraising juggernaut on her own – Greene certainly is among the base – but she can score free media by attacking Greene over and over and over. Furthermore, going after Greene has very little downside for Haley, as Greene’s supporters were never going to give her a second look regardless and would fight to keep her off the 2024 presidential ticket as vice president.
As Haley must be aware that the Republican Party has changed since she last ran for office, so too has conservative media. From Fox News prime time to Steve Bannon’s podcast to her own podcast and Twitter feed, Greene gets her message out and gets the attention of the public in a way few other politicians today can, which is something Haley can piggyback on – if she is willing to withstand the backlash, which may even help her.
Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) has been test-driving this strategy for Haley or any other more centrist Republican presidential candidate. Mace comically roasted Greene and other fellow Republicans at the 77th annual Washington Press Club Dinner and has been willing to feud publicly with Greene, which has gone a long way to making her one of the more recognizable names in Congress.
Mace, like Haley undoubtedly will, still jabs Democrats and offers red meat to her Republican base – like her recent viral questioning of Twitter executives for “silencing” doctors on Covid-19 – but neither can or does attack the left with the same kind of vitriol that Trump or Greene do. Which means Haley, will have a hard time standing out in the pact if she doesn’t do something out of the ordinary – like going after the fringe of her own party.
A new AP-NORC poll out this week also showed that while Haley has no natural base right now, there are plenty of GOP primary voters still up for grabs. 34 percent of GOP respondents had “no answer” when the poll asked, “Who should lead the Republican Party?”
Among those polled, 22 percent said Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, while 20 percent said former President Donald Trump – leaving 58 percent of GOP voters looking for someone else.
While Haley going after a Marjorie Taylor Greene or Lauren Boebert or Matt Gaetz, may be seen as centrist wish casting, it would certainly go a long way to making clear Haley has what it takes to weather a GOP primary in today’s politics and possibly pivot the party back to where it was when it last won the popular vote – in 2004.
This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.
