Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Forecasts Democrats Keeping the Senate For the First Time This Cycle: Not Just ‘Statistical Noise’
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Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight switched its projection to forecast for the first time this election cycle that the Democrats will keep the U.S. Senate.
“It seems clear that there’s Something Happening Here and movement toward Democrats in recent polls isn’t just statistical noise,” Silver wrote on Twitter over the weekend, announcing the shift.
“The *something* is probably in part (or indeed mostly) Dobbs, but there are quite a few factors that have come to look better for Democrats over the past few weeks, including their legislative agenda,” Silver added.
The *something* is probably in part (or indeed mostly) Dobbs, but there are quite a few factors that have come to look better for Democrats over the past few weeks, including their legislative agenda. pic.twitter.com/QXrl5q5AIK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 29, 2022
Silver’s forecasts are based on “The Deluxe version” of his models, which “simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.”
In that model, Democrats now win the U.S. Senate majority 56 out of 100 times, while the GOP wins the remaining 44 out of 100 times.
“Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November,” notes the latest update on the website from last week. Silver wrote an accompanying article with the change in forecast and argued that the GOP still has some strong chances to pick up a seat or two – particularly in Georgia.
One thing about the Senate this cycle is that there are no sitting ducks for Republicans like say Jones in 2020 or Heitkamp in 2018. We have the best GOP chances in NV and GA but even those are Biden states where D incumbents have led in most polls so far.https://t.co/jRBDbh7Ah8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 29, 2022
“One thing about the Senate this cycle is that there are no sitting ducks for Republicans like say Jones in 2020 or Heitkamp in 2018. We have the best GOP chances in NV and GA but even those are Biden states where D incumbents have led in most polls so far,” Silver added.
FiveThirtyEight currently favors Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) to keep her seat, winning in 55 out of 100 scenarios.
The race in Georgia between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and GOP challenger Herschel Walker is a 50/50 proposition according to the model. But, in Pennsylvania, Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D-PA) is defeating GOP challenger Mehmet Oz by a 63 to 37 ratio in the model, which would be a pickup for the Democrats in current the 50-50 U.S. Senate.
The model shows no other Senate seats changing hands, which means the Democrats can lose Georgia and retain the majority as long as they win Pennsylvania.
