Shock Poll Shows Arab Americans Support Trump and the GOP More Than Harris and the Democrats Following Biden’s Gaza Policies

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

A new poll conducted by the Arab American Institute found Arab Americans were more likely to support former President Donald Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s controversial policies towards Israel and Gaza.

According to the poll, 42% of Arab-American voters intend to vote for Trump in the November presidential election versus 41% for Harris.

Trump’s lead was larger among those who were “very likely to vote,” with 46% likely to support Trump versus 42% Harris.

While Harris was significantly more popular among Arab Americans than Biden post-October 7, Arab-American support for Harris remained 18 percent below Biden in 2020.

The poll also found a majority of Arab Americans would prefer Republicans keep control of the House. 46% said it would be better for the Republican Party to be the majority in Congress, versus 43% who expressed support for the Democratic Party.

Only 67% of Arab-American Democrats said they were enthusiastic about voting for their ticket, versus 80% of Republicans, while 55% Arab-American voters between the ages of 18 and 29 said they were unenthusiastic about the election.

The Biden administration’s policies towards Israel and Gaza appeared to be the main factor in declining support for the Democrats. 81% of Arab Americans said the crisis in Gaza was important in determining their vote. This number increased to 95% among Arab-American Muslims. 55% of Arab Americans said they “would have been more likely to support Harris” if the Democratic National Convention had featured a Palestinian speaker.

A majority of Arab Americans in both parties said they would be more likely to vote for their respective candidates if they vowed to suspend arms shipments to Israel and demanded a ceasefire.

“For Arab Americans, Israel’s war on Palestinians in Gaza looms large and will play a significant role in this November’s election,” noted the Arab American Institute in its report:

Since we first began polling Arab Americans 30 years ago, the community has consistently favored the Democratic Party, with the margin of that support holding steady at nearly two to one for the past decade and a half. The Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza, however, has eroded that support resulting in Arab Americans now evenly divided between the two parties – 38% for each.

The institute acknowledged that Trump was on track to be the main “beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden Administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza,” and predicted that voter turnout among the Arab-American community would be significantly lower than previous years.

“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” the report concluded.

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