If The Election Were Held Today Obama Would Lose

by Glynnis MacNicol | 8:30 am, November 3rd, 2009

» 15 comments

obama35_16955781-1 So yes. As the saying goes, what a difference a year makes. Twelve months after the momentous election of Barack Obama as the nation’s 44th president, a poll shows that were the election to be held today Obama might not be so successful.

The Rasmussen poll finds that “45% of adults say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Obama if he was up for reelection right now. Forty-nine percent (49%) say they would be unlikely to vote for the president’s reelection.” Ouch. Side note: more women like him than men.

Of course, it should go without saying that a poll like this is held in a vacuum, which does not include real world contributing factors like opposing candidates or running mates. Not to mention the next chance voters will get to check the President’s name off on a ballot is still three years off — needless to say, a lot can change in three years! — but still, probably not exactly the way Obama wanted to arrive at election day 2009!

For her part, Arianna Huffington, whose coverage of Obama during the campaign was generally, shall we say, positive, also appears to have decamped into the less-than-thrilled party. Huffington has penned a new post titled ‘The Audacity of Winning vs. The Timidity of Governing.’ From the post:

How did the candidate who got into the race because he’d decided that “the core leadership had turned rotten” and that “the people were getting hosed” become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?

How did the candidate who told a stadium of supporters in Denver that “the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result” become the president who has surrounded himself with the same old players trying the same old politics, expecting a different result?

The audacity of reality? No doubt the difference the next 36 months can make will help people make up their minds on that one.

Arianna Huffington, barack obama, David Plouffe, Election 2008, Rasmussen

DWHarper

McNichol presents RASMUSSEN AS HER ONLY POLL? What a joke. She uses a republican pollster who always leans republican as her only proof that Obama would lose which is a ridiculous assumption anyway. McNichol is an idiot. I don’t know why Abrams hired her and he sure should get rid of her because she is just dumb.
new mex

Rasmussen’s are the only legit polls. They poll people who actually vote, not people standing on the street corner selling drugs!
ImNotBlue

Wasn’t Rasmussen exceptionally correct in predicting the outcome of the 2008 race?

Ah yes… reality getting in the way of “want to believe,” or in this case, “not wanting to.”
DWHarper

Rassmussen always skews republican until they see the writing on the wall then they turn back to reality when they can’t make the population match their polls. Look at 2008 polls, Rasmussen had McCain almost leading until the last week when they realized that Obama was going to win so they skew back to reality. Fivethirtyeight.com is the ONLY site for polling which does take into account all polls including Rasmussen. Just looking at Rasmussen is like the blind man who only touches the leg of an elephant claiming it is a tree.
DWHarper

Even the idiots at Real Clear Politics have Obama with a 51 to 43 approval rating based on average of MANY polls. That means he WINS even though it is a ridiculous proposition.
DWHarper

And the Rasmussen poll is an OUTLIER. Way different than any other reputable polling company.
sarainitaly

DWHarper says:
November 3, 2009 at 11:09 am

Seriously – your comments are inappropriate. i know she dared to say something slightly negative towards your beloved Obama, but the personal attacks are not cool. Can’t you just stick to the point and avoid the nastiness?? This seems an impossibility for Obama supporters.
LotusMan

But of course the election ISN’T being held today. No one is campaigning for votes. What we have is someone out there making the difficult decision necessary to get us out of multiple messes. Presiding over bad times is never good, even if they are not your fault, and this poll for what it might be worth is picking up on that. If we in the midst of a real election right now, I suspect that poll, would be showing something quite different.
DWHarper

sarainitaly says:

In response, I have laid out my evidence and come to the conclusion that Ms. McNicol is dumb, simple as that. I don’t know her personally, I can only go by what she writes and everything that I have read from her leads me to the same conclusion. She uses the stupid false equivalency that most other media reporters are, equating MSNBC with Fox News, when evidence does not show that equivalence. Here she is making a ridiculous assumption by reading ONE POLL that is skewed Republican. That is dumb too.
hadashito

Are you’all sure that poll wasn’t a Fox “News” poll ?
ImNotBlue

DWHarper is ANGRY! That’s why he/she posts multiple times! SO ANGRY! GRRROOOWWWLLLL!!!

Really dude, calm down.

Rasmussen has a long reputation as being a very good polling company. Right now, they do appear to be outliers, but that could just be the difference in their polling techniques. Real Clear (why you think they’re idiots, who knows) provides the average. But even the average shows his popularity trending down.

I know you only want to see things with one eye open (the left one), but that’s simply not reality.
DWHarper

Rasmussen generally has skewed Republican always, even though their methods are sound but they do tend to use methods that will generally produce higher Republican numbers. However, their “outlier” poll is REALLY out of touch. They are about 15 points off of other polls. Considering the right wing noise machine that has been relentless in their attacks on Obama, it is amazing that Obama is still over 50 percent approval. The reason why I posted multiple times is to make points not because I am angry. RCP is a conservative website thats why they are idiots. REAL CLEAR means only right wing opinion and news just like “fair and balanced”.
TfT

I think these “if the” polls are really stupid and are taken only to drive the news and punditry.
ImNotBlue

DWHarper says:
November 3, 2009 at 3:00 pm

Considering the right wing noise machine that has been relentless in their attacks on Obama,

Those darn right-wingers MAKING Obama attack FOX News, in an effort to make him look thin-skinned and petty… darn them!

it is amazing that Obama is still over 50 percent approval.

I always wonder how the left can first say the Republicans are clueless and disorganized… but then blame them for Democrat’s bad poll numbers. Which is it? Either they’re unable to accomplish anything… or they’re effectively bringing down Democrat’s poll numbers. But I guess when you’re a loon, you can have it both ways because reality isn’t that important.

RCP is a conservative website thats why they are idiots. REAL CLEAR means only right wing opinion and news just like “fair and balanced”.

RRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWW… I don’t like things that don’t expressly promote my opinions! RRRRRAARRGGGGH!

Get over yourself. Real Clear posts all the polls, then does an average! How is THAT biased?
Nachi

Sure. A nation of growing abject, patent, uneducated, untutored, uncultured, uncivilized cowards speak/act out against his every breath. They MUST find someone to HATE more than they hate themselves/their little lives. Ever is it so thru history. The weak and endangered will chew on – anything.