CNN Data Guru Flags ‘Troubling’ Number for Democrats That May Predict Mike Rogers Victory

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Democrats their Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is “historically unpopular” and could be throwing a “lifeline” to Republicans.

Enten broke down numbers out of Michigan’s Senate race on Friday and highlighted some “troubling” figures for Republicans hoping to defeat Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat, recently won his primary against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI).

Citing a Fox News survey, Enten noted Rogers is leading El-Sayed by four points overall and five points among independents (the poll has a margin of error of three points).

This, he argued, is “extremely unusual” and highlights how unpopular El-Sayed is as a candidate:

This is extremely unusual because across the political map, as I was looking at these different Fox News polls, I couldn’t find another example where the Republican was actually leading among independents.

And it turns out that candidate quality may in fact, matter, at least in terms of how voters see it, because in this same poll, the Democratic candidate for governor was ahead. So this is unique to the Senate race, and it is quite a troubling result for Democrats and quite a heartening one for Republicans.

El-Sayed, he added, is a “weak candidate,” especially when you stack his net favorability against other Democrats in battleground states races.

He noted Democratic candidates in Iowa, Maine, and Ohio all have positive net favorability scores, while El-Sayed is underwater by 13 points:

This is extremely unusual. Again, across the map. Democrats have done such a good job recruiting candidates who are well-liked by the voters.

Again, I looked at all the Fox News polls. All the Democrats were above water except for Abdul El-Sayed. And he is 13 points underwater. This is all about Abdul El-Sayed being a weak candidate, at least in the minds of the voters.

Enten further highlighted El-Sayed’s unpopularity with voters by noting El-Sayed is the only Michigan Democrat down by at least four points in a Senate race this century.

“This is extremely, extremely, extremely unusual,” he said. “Abdul El-Sayed breaking records in the ways that you don’t want to. In fact, he is the first Democrat down by this much as I said, essentially since 1994.”

Watch above via CNN.

Jason Cohen contributed to this report.

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