If Gavin Newsom Cancels Football Season, Will It Give Trump A Clear Shot at Reelection?

When it comes to if/when/how America will finally return to “normal” after the worst of the coronavirus crisis has passed, there has understandably been a lot of attention paid to the apparent conflicts between President Donald Trump and the leading figure on his task force, the now world-famous Dr. Anthony Fauci. The conventional wisdom is that Fauci is acting like industrial-strength restrictor plates preventing Trump’s battered economic sports car from even reaching the speed limit, and that this will inevitably lead to an ever escalating power struggle between the two of them (Trump “Cult 45” members are already publicly calling for Fauci’s firing, while somehow also not blaming Trump for having hired, and not fired, the man they fault most for the sudden destruction of entire economic system).

All of this may indeed be true, but when it comes to whether we are going to see a return to a semblance of our former lives before the November elections, the REAL conflict will indeed involve Trump, but with a bizarre series of allies and adversaries taking maybe even more prominent roles. Trump vs. Fauci may just end up being an undercard bout in comparison to the emerging main event between California Governor Gavin Newsom vs. The National Football League and the Disney Corporation.

Here is how this may very well all go down. By mid-May, the coronavirus numbers across the nation will be much lower than they are today. Most of the nation, weary from this excruciating lockdown, will gradually try to get back on its feet. However, California, despite being better shape per capita than almost any other large state, appears have changed the goal from “flatten the curve” so the hospital system can handle the anticipated patient load, to “we must save all lives, at all cost,” and will therefore be VERY slow to follow.

The reasons for this are almost entirely political. California has only one-party rule now and Newsom’s approval ratings have skyrocketed because of the widely held—and I believe grossly inaccurate—perception that he saved the state by shutting down “early” (even though numerous studies have now indicated that California actually had this virus at the start of the year and that, in reality, Newsom arguably locked things down “late”).

This means that Newsom will have almost no pressure to reopen our most populous and wealthiest state, especially since the local news media here is even more incompetent and married to the “we are all going to die!” narrative than the one-sided national media is. Since he is now personally invested in the idea that his shutdown was a huge success, and because he is being broadly applauded for it, he has no motivation to allow his citizens to regain their basic freedoms, especially when if he does so quickly, and nothing horrible happens, it actually makes his shutdown suddenly look much less brilliant, and potentially very counter-productive.

Then, when you add in the reality that we are in the middle of a presidential election, Newsom, at least at first glance, has a further incentive to rebuke anything Trump (whose favorite son happens to be the long-time boyfriend of Newsom’s former wife) wants to do, you have a perfect storm of circumstances which all lead towards California being the last of the states to fully reopen. This would then set up potentially the biggest battle in all of this so far: Newsom vs. the NFL and the Disney Corporation.

The impact of what the NFL decides to do with its 2020 season on whether America gets back to normal this year simply cannot be overstated. If they elect to take aggressive action (no preseason spectators, but full stadiums in September) then it will have a massive domino effect on the rest of society. Not only will college football have the political cover to go on, but schools in general will be able to reopen, and public events of all sorts will also have a strong argument that they can do the same.

If, on the other hand, even the mighty NFL is unable to go forward (and, to be clear, you just cannot viably play regular season NFL or college football without a “studio audience”), then anyone else with any fear of reopening will surely be far too terrified to do so. The mind boggles at the potential impact this would have on America, not just culturally, but economically, all the way through the next winter.

For our nation to ever return to “normal,” some person/organization is going to have the power, the enticement, and the guts to take a giant leap. The NFL has at least two of those three qualities, but they also have a huge California problem.

Because California is the home of three NFL teams, including two currently scheduled to open a multiple-billion-dollar stadium in Los Angeles this fall, Newsom is in a position to potentially block the entire NFL season, and he has already made statements indicating he does not support the league attempting to play, despite Trump telling them that he thinks they can. If California only had one team, there might be a way around this hurdle, but their fourth team has already left for Las Vegas, and it is hard to imagine how three teams could find a place to play on such short notice.

Adding to the intrigue of this looming confrontation is that Disneyland is obviously closed in California, costing the company millions of dollars a day. Disney also has a GIGANTIC stake in the playing of NFL and college football through their ownership of ABC/ESPN.

So, on one side would be the NFL, Disney, and Trump (which is hilarious given the president’s extremely long vendetta against the NFL), with Newsom on the other. Normally, you would think that a governor would be easily forced to cave under pressure from such a powerful alliance, however there is a decent chance that Newsom will “prevail” here, mostly because the NFL and Disney might be intimidated by a fight which could be portrayed as putting them on the “wrong” side of public health.

Ironically, should it all turn out this way, the big political winner might be Trump. After all, he would be able to use Newsom as the poster boy for Democrats obstructing his efforts to save the country, and having a prominent member of his opposition party single-handedly stopping both the NFL and college football seasons would be manna from heaven for his reelection campaign.
But don’t worry Democrats, football isn’t that big of a deal in the very key states of Pennsylvania (Steelers, Eagles, Nittany Lions, Panthers, Army/Navy), Michigan (Lions, Wolverines, Spartans), and Wisconsin (Packers, Badgers). So I am sure this won’t hurt Joe Biden with the very voters for which he was nominated to win back.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.