SHOCK POLL: Trump and Biden Would Basically Split the Hispanic Vote in 2024, a Nearly 30 POINT Swing

Photo by Eric Hersman via Flickr.

A new poll from the Wall Street Journal showed startling gains for the GOP among Hispanic voters, with support evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans on a generic Congressional ballot and a shocking nearly 30-point swing to the right in a hypothetical 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

The poll was a joint project by Democratic pollster John Anzalone and his firm ALG Research and Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio and his firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, as the first part of an ongoing series of polls commissioned by the WSJ to “explore the forces driving American politics and changes in society.”

The survey was conducted between Nov. 16-22 with 1,500 registered voters, including 165 Hispanic voters, who were reached by landline telephone calls, cell phone calls, and text messages. The margin of error for the full sample was +/- 2.5 percentage points, and for the Hispanic voter sample it was +/- 7.6 percentage points.

When Hispanic voters were asked which party they would back in a generic congressional election (i.e., no names on the ballot, just choosing between political parties), 37 percent said they would vote for the Republican, 37 percent said they would vote Democrat, and 22 percent were undecided.

For the upcoming 2024 presidential election, if it were Trump vs. Biden on the ballot again, 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they would vote for Biden and 43 percent said they would vote for Trump.

That’s a nearly 30 point swing from the 2020 election, in which Biden enjoyed 63 percent support from Hispanic voters, according to data gathered by AP VoteCast, and follows a recent trend, with Hispanic voters supporting Trump by 8 points more in 2020 than in 2016.

The poll’s results are “a troubling development for the Democratic Party,” the Journal’s Aaron Zitner reported, noting the historic support the party had received from Hispanic voters, a group that comprises about 1 in 8 eligible voters in America.

“Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters,” Anzalone told the WSJ. “They’re a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for.”

There was a noticeable divide between Hispanic men and women, with men favoring a Republican congressional candidate 45 percent compared to 29 percent Democrat, and men picking Trump over Biden 56 percent to 33 percent. In contrast, Hispanic women chose a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican 46 percent to 29 percent, and Biden over Trump 55 percent to 30 percent.

“This says to me that the economy matters, particularly to Hispanic men,” said the Republican pollster Fabrizio. “The economy and economic factors are driving them.”