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Herman-ally Ill: Herman Cain’s Approval Rating With Republicans Drops 9 Points In One Week

by Tommy Christopher | 5:36 pm, November 7th, 2011

» 31 comments

One week after the story of sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain blew up, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the first signs of possible orbital decay in the embattled presidential hopeful’s ride at the top of the GOP polls. According to the poll, Cain’s approval rating among registered Republicans has slid nine points, from 66% last week, to 57% this week. As Jay Carney might say, this can’t possibly be the kind of nine Cain wants.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken last week seemed to bode well for Cain, showing him in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney, but more importantly, with a substantial majority of voters (73%) saying that the sexual harassment allegations either made no difference, or made them more likely to vote for Cain.

The Reuters poll, meanwhile, was an online survey, so, as Reuters says “typical margins of error do not apply,” so that nine point dip might not be as terrifying an omen as it seems.

However, even if the scandal hasn’t sunk Cain (and we have yet to see what effect a flesh-and-blood accuser will have on the story’s trajectory), polling expert Nate Silver notes that it seems to have hit the brakes on his campaign’s bullet train momentum:

It looks to me as if Mr. Cain had been on a positive trajectory before, perhaps having moved up to about 28 percent of the Republican vote. The two new surveys have him at 23 percent and 26 percent. That’s not bad at all — a scandal-marred Herman Cain still has as much of the vote as Mitt Romney. But any upward momentum Mr. Cain had has been halted, and he may have lost a couple of points.

Ordinarily, such a plateauing wouldn’t be cause for all that much worry, but the scandal is entering a new phase that could get really ugly. On the other hand, in the Spock-with-a-beard universe of conservative base politics, Cain might capitalize on their powerful susceptibility to media victimhood, and benefit from stepped-up attacks.

Silver also observes that “key Republican blogs, which defended Mr. Cain early on, were turning against him by the end of the week.”

Ironically, I think that’s probably a function of his so-called China gaffe, which seems to have been the straw that broke the back of many a Cain supporter. Even though he was actually innocent of the gaffe, it highlighted Cain’s already established weakness on foreign policy, and hardly anyone on the right bothered to push back against it.

Had that “gaffe” not happened, I think a lot of conservatives would have been more inclined to defend Cain on the harassment allegations. There’s little to be lost for a conservative to push back against eeeevil Politico, et al, but defending a guy who has the foreign policy chops of an IHOP manager can damage your reputation.

It’s too early to count Cain out, though, as the heat from this firestorm is match only by the icy regard in which conservatives, and the media, hold Cain’s main rival, Mitt Romney.

2012 Election, Herman Cain, Herman Cain Sexual Harassment, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver

Anonymous

I really don’t understand your assertion that he’s “innoncent” of the China gaffe. It’s inconclusive at best, and I think he stated in a subsequent interview that he was referring to more than just aircraft carriers.

But I suppose you’re a member of the media, and as such preserving the facade of neutrality is more important than actual objectivity.
Anonymous

Well, he waved it off by saying he “misspoke,” but his campaign manager did explain the carrier thing. This isn’t complicated. He was explicitly talking about the carriers.
Mo Fokker

The problem with your assertion is that he has demonstrated ignorance of international issues before. You aren’t entitled to the benefit of the doubt when there is a track record of ignorance.
Tony

Maybe you just want to think that way. Here’s what he said:

“So yes they’re a military threat. They’ve indicated that they’re trying to develop nuclear capability and they want to develop more aircraft carriers like we have. So yes, we have to consider them a military threat.” – Herman Cain.

To me it sounds like he doesn’t know China has already developed nuclear capability a long time ago. This really isn’t complicated. Unless of course you’re biased.
http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

If some Republicon voters are not willing to support you because you’re a sexual pervert and you start seeing your poll numbers drop, don’t blame your former supporters… “Blame Yourself!!”
Brad

I think it more to do with people hearing my plan. The 8-8-8 plan.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Dave-Be/1751243136 Dave Be

No he wasn’t. He said he was talking about the size of their nuclear program in the same clip he said he misspoke.
Texan

November 7, 2011

Cain Ties Romney Atop GOP Field
Texan

nate silver and online poll…nuff said
Anonymous

Damn, that approval rating is dropping quicker than Herman Cain’s zipper at the employees Christmas party.
Anonymous

If this was a scientific poll, no need for Herman to panic. Republicans don’t believe in science.
Norbit

Tommy, were you able to maintain consciousness when you heard this report, or was the euphoria just too much?
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OF3FD4CIOE54KAKXHVRA3EMUDI NONE

BOGUS POLL OF 1000 PEOPLE ON WEEKEND TO SELECTED GROUP ONLY….MEANS NOTHING…BUT THE SLIME MEDIA RUN WITH IT…TOO STUPID TO LOOK AT THE DETAILS…..AFTER GLORIA ALLRED WENT TO THE MATRESSES WITH THE BLONDE PAID HIT WHORE IN CHICAGO, HIS RATINGS ZOOMED UP AND MILLIONS MORE DOLLARS WERE SENT TO HIS CAMPAIGN…..OH HOW THE LIBS AND MEDIA WHORES ARE HATING THIS CIRCLE JERK OF THEIR OWN STUPIDITY.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_OF3FD4CIOE54KAKXHVRA3EMUDI NONE

SURE HAPPENED TO BILL CLINTON…HE HAD TO START A WAR IN BOSNIA TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM HIS CIGAR POKING ON HIS LITTLE HIRED INTERN GIRL.
Guest

Um, no. Also, way to imply the person in question was a child. Or do you just use demeaning diminutives towards all women? Either way, you fail, troll. LOL
Guest

If you’re going to troll, at least be clever. Or failing that, at least say something that won’t get erased immediately for violating the rules. LOL
Guest

He should have responded to the earlier complaints with something more polite than the lies, inconsistencies, and contempt he did; if he had, this latest victim might not have come out, and his campaign wouldn’t have received such a blow. This kind of shameful scandal should be difficult to recover from even in the Republican Party. After all, the right needs what little of the female vote it can get, and this is going to change a lot of women’s minds. Whoever was advising him not to respond to any more questions should be fired. Or if it was his choice, he’s effectively ruined his own chances now. It’s kind of depressing.
Anonymous

Wow…a conservative actually quoting NYT’s Nate Silver? Pigs. Fly.
Anonymous

Hahaha…
Anonymous

Tool. Box.
Anonymous

Uh, no, Clinton didn’t start the war in Bosnia. It was going on for a long time before he got NATO to END IT!
Anonymous

Whenever the news or polls goes against a simple minded dittoheads’ wishes, they always reaches for the brass hoop of media bias.
Anonymous

Yeah, Cain is a real world politics and strategy genius, he makes Palin look like a scholar in that field.
Anonymous

no, my 6-6-6 plan rules !
Ajim26

for the “Pubicans its always the “media”…..i guess Obamas drop in the Polls is also thye medias fault u know kike Rush Limpballs and Insanitty Hannity
Ajim26

Exactly! Cain instead said “well i dont remember”, “what i remember”…etc etc….u will get caught it will bite u in tha butt
Anonymous

I agree with you. Cain hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt on this.
Anonymous

They love to bash the Times as a hopeless liberal rag, but they sure do love to quote from it when it suits their purposes.
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002245830313 Gabriel Marc Beaven

Just keep in mind that Sharon Biaek was it? Said she had nothing to gain from it. She is a brave woman for coming out and telling her story. Its just not one of those he said she said, She brought it into the light and described to my surprise in detail.
Anonymous

“999 upside down (666), devil is in the details” Michelle “really smart” Bachmann
Thinker

He would never blame himself for anything! He’s been in the public eye for almost two months now, and let’s make a list of who all he’s blames over that short time:
-racists
-liberals
-the media
-the left
-the right
-the women accusers
-one of the accusers son
-lack of sleep
-”I was taken out of context”- at least 10X
-because the target on his back
-Rick Ferry
-the “Democratic Machine”
-the non wealthy, “if you are unemployed and not rich, it is your own fault”
-Dem blacks for being “brainwashed”
-Politico

…and that just off the top of my head! It’s good to see Hermanation has finally noticed the trend!!!