Decision Desk HQ RETRACTS New Jersey Democratic Primary Call as Race Tightens

(Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images)

The New Jersey Democratic primary for the state’s 11th Congressional District was plunged into uncertainty on Thursday night after Decision Desk HQ abruptly walked back its earlier projection calling a win for former congressman Tom Malinowski after a late surge by his progressive rival.

The election analysis outlet had initially called the contest for Malinowski, only to retract its call hours later as election night data began cutting sharply against its assumptions.

With roughly 95% of the vote reported, progressive activist Analilia Mejia moved narrowly ahead, holding 28.8% to Malinowski’s 28%, a margin of fewer than 500 votes in a crowded 12-candidate field.

In a detailed statement posted on X, Decision Desk HQ acknowledged the error, writing: “Decision Desk HQ is retracting its projection in the NJ-11 Democratic primary.”

The organization said it had deleted its original call after late election-day returns in Morris County swung decisively toward Mejia, reversing trends seen in early and absentee voting.

“As the night progressed, margins in Morris County quickly tilted toward Mejia; Mejia began winning drops by 20%-30%, representing a swing of 65 points compared to the absentee vote,” the statement said. “This trend reversal prompted us to re-examine our race projection and ultimately retract it.”

“Our apologies for the inaccurate projection on this race,” the statement concluded.

The winner will face Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph, in an April 16 special general election. The seat opened after Mikie Sherrill resigned last year to prepare for her transition into the governor’s office.

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