The Covid Resurgence Has Made Gavin Newsom Suddenly Vulnerable to Being Recalled

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About two months ago, I wrote, rather confidently, that while California Governor Gavin Newsom more than deserved to be recalled in September’s special election, that he would not be removed by our very liberal voting populace. While I still wouldn’t yet bet on it happening, there is now a rather strong case he will not survive, largely because the recent surge in Covid cases, apparently due to the Delta variant, has boxed him into a very vulnerable position.

When I predicted here that Newsom was a near lock to survive the recall the process, that projection was not just based on polls which had him comfortably ahead, but also because the perceived state of the pandemic was then radically different. Since Newsom’s anti-American and monarchial overreach on Covid restrictions was a huge part of why the recall even made the ballot, and, thanks to the vaccines, it appeared that we were no longer in danger of him ever locking us down again, it seemed that the fear and anger which had motivated the entire process would have faded away by the time the votes were cast.

Since then, the negative Covid data has made a dramatic comeback, and it has become clear that the vaccines which Newsom highly-touted (even holding a televised lottery to reward those who got vaccinated), while still a very important tool against horrible outcomes, may not be as effective as had been believed. This has seemingly put Newsom is a political “Catch 22” with four important voting blocks, as polls now show the recall significantly gaining support with just five weeks to go until his fate is decided.

Voters who are outraged over Newsom’s draconian and dictatorial Covid measures are now convinced he will shut us down again if he is not recalled, and now more energized than ever, especially with polls showing real momentum. Those in Newsom’s “woke” political base, who seem to actually like wearing masks and telling others how to live, are surely upset at him for NOT reinstating restrictions, and may be losing some enthusiasm for him.

Meanwhile, at least some of those who were on the fence on Newsom’s Covid reaction may have lost faith that any of what has been done over the last 18 months has made much difference when California has done no better than average, and “cases” here are STILL spiking. Finally, younger voters appear to have suddenly found a reason to support the recall as one poll, shockingly, has an unknown Democratic YouTuber named Kevin Paffrath the leading candidate to replace Newsom if the recall passes.

All of this has created a combustible situation for Newsom (one on which his extremely winy and desperate recent comments indicate he is now aware of the potential peril he now faces) with one of the key questions being whether the news media will now light a match or do their best to pour cold water over the whole process. Right now, they could go either direction.

In 2003, when California recalled Democrat Grey Davis, the news media played a pivotal role in creating momentum for the movement, effectively becoming (motivated by ratings/excitement rather than by political agenda) an arm of the Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign. This time, the news media is FAR more invested in Newsom not being removed, if only because they have SO enthusiastically carried his water for him on the very Covid restrictions which got the recall on the ballot.

In a very real sense, the news media (which has been even worse here in California than it has been nationally on Covid restrictions) is itself on the ballot. Therefore, it would seem likely that this time they will largely resist the temptation to allow Newsom to be taken down, despite the fact that it would create such a dramatic storyline for them.

To be clear, if the news media suddenly decided to promote the Paffrath campaign, and educated the populace even a little bit about how ineffective/destructive Newsom’s Covid measures have been (with extra attention to the scientific absurdity of our school children being forced to mask in class this coming school year), Newsom would almost certainly be toast and forced to join disgraced soon-to-be former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on the scrapheap of former Covid media heroes. But, in this situation, all forms of media appear to be far too entrenched in Newsom and his Covid narrative to ever dare to give oxygen to this emerging flame which could easily cause his destruction and, by extension, further destroy what is left of their credibility.

My presumption is that most of the mainstream media here in California and nationwide will circle the wagons for Newsom, largely by attacking radio talk show host Larry Elder, who is currently the leading Republican candidate to replace him if the recall is successful (and who, being a conservative talk show host, has said many things which would offend the sensibilities of the average California voter). With the media on his side, lots of money to spend (which, thanks to very ineffective ads, is currently not helping him), and every voter in the state being sent a main-in ballot, Newsom still has a lot weapons left in his arsenal.

Ironically, one which he would have surely liked to have used but has not, may have, if timed perfectly, led him to near certain victory. If, say two weeks ago, he had instituted some sort of major Covid restrictions, based on how the Delta variant has quickly faded, apparently due to purely natural forces, in places like India and the United Kingdom, he could have claimed—surely with universal help from the news media — a great victory as cases dropped significantly (just as they did LAST September in California) leading up to the final days of voting.

It would be incredibly rich if the man who changed America forever by being the first governor to lock-down his state ended up getting removed in part because he didn’t restrict his population again when it could have worked out for him politically. That scenario is still far from certain, but it is now as, or even more, plausible than other currently rational outcome.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.