‘Down We Go!’ CNN Data Guru Says Dem Odds of Winning Michigan Seat Have ‘Fallen Dramatically’ After El-Sayed Victory

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed the chances of Democrats winning a Senate seat in Michigan have actually gone down since Abdul El-Sayed’s primary win.

El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens earlier this week in a race that was viewed as a massive test for the progressive movement within the Democratic Party. The 41-year-old will face Republican Mike Rogers in November’s general election.

Prior to the primary, Democrats were concerned that, although El-Sayed was polling higher than Stevens, he may not have as good a chance of defeating Rogers.

Rogers even said he would prefer to face El-Sayed, who received the support of other prominent progressives and the Democratic Socialists of America.

During a Thursday morning segment, Enten examined data that seemed to confirm those suspicions:

You know, once El-Sayed became the favorite for that nomination, and now that he’s actually become the nominee, Democratic chances have fallen dramatically.

But you can see it right here, Kalshi prediction odds. Take a look here. Chance to win the Michigan Senate race. You go back to April at this point in the month, Dems had a 79% chance.

Look how that number has fallen dramatically. Down we go into Lake Michigan. Now, we’re talking about just a 59% chance, while Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee — look at this. Twenty-one percent chance basically doubling, now up to a 41% chance.

Enten noted that Kalshi odds are based on betting activity, meaning more people have begun to put money on Rogers to win in November.

“So the people who are putting their money where their mouths are quite skeptical at this point, or at least significantly more skeptical, that Democrats will be able to hold on to the Michigan Senate seat with El-Sayed as the nominee,” Enten continued.

“Though I still should note he is the slight favorite here, but given Michigan being a purple state and given where Trump’s approval rating is, I think it’s quite surprising that his numbers are not significantly higher.”

Watch above via CNN

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!