Ex-Clinton Pollster Says It’s ‘Highly Likely’ Haley Stevens Voters Will Flip and Deliver Mike Rogers Victory

Veteran political operative and former pollster for the Clintons, Mark Penn, joined Fox News on Thursday to discuss Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s chances against Republican Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat race.

Progressive candidate El-Sayed pulled out a razor-thin victory over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) on Tuesday night, which has led to rampant media speculation about his electability in the general election.

“Mark Penn, how do you dissect these numbers right now?” anchor Bill Hemmer asked during the discussion.

“Well, I would not confuse how the Black community voted in a primary versus how they’ll vote in a general election. I think you will find that the Black vote will, by and large, consolidate behind the Democrats in the Black election, and those students — they are gonna stick with their choice,” Penn noted, referring to Stevens winning the Black vote in the state. Penn added:

The question is whether or not a lot of the moderate Democrats who were for Stevens will say, “I just won’t go there, I will defect from my party.” Is it possible to find 5% that will do that? It is highly likely that you’re gonna find 5% of those Stevens voters who are going to switch to the other side, and that alone would give a margin of victory to Rogers.

Notably, several moderate Democrats in Michigan, including Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI), made clear throughout the primary that they could not support El-Sayed in the general election, accusing him of sexism and embracing anti-American rhetoric.

El-Sayed’s affiliation with progressive media figure Hasan Piker was widely discussed during the primary, given Piker’s long history of controversial comments, which include saying the U.S. deserved 9/11 and praising China’s autocratic government.

The Democrat challenged Rogers to five debates during a victory speech, calling him a coward.

Penn’s prediction lined up with Kalshi prediction markets highlighted by CNN data guru Harry Enten, which appear to show El-Sayed’s diminished chances vs Rogers.

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