Nate Silver Says Bloomberg is Slipping in Polls After Debates: He’s in ‘A Lot of Trouble’
FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief and influential political statistician Nate Silver said presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg is in “a lot of trouble,” Wednesday, after dropping in national and state polls following his two subpar debate appearances.
“Bloomberg is in quite a lot of trouble. His national polls have stalled out or begun to reverse themselves,” Silver claimed on Twitter. “He’s fallen to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states, we aren’t seeing the leads we saw pre-NV debate; it’s a lot of stuff in the teens and low 20s.”
Bloomberg is in quite a lot of trouble. His national polls have stalled out or begun to reverse themselves. He’s fallen to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states, we aren’t seeing the leads we saw pre-NV debate; it’s a lot of stuff in the teens and low 20s.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 26, 2020
“Nor is there any obvious way to turn it around before Super Tuesday,” he continued, noting that Bloomberg, “isn’t competing in SC.”
“His performance in the debate last night was improved IMO but initial polling suggests that voters didn’t like it very much,” added Silver. “It’s not even clear what he wants to happen in SC. If Bernie wins, Bernie may open up a *very* formidable lead by Super Tuesday, and though Bloomberg might be 2nd (a) it’s likely to be a distant 2nd and (b) there’s much more evidence of a Bloomberg ceiling than a Bernie ceiling.”
Silver also claimed that if Biden “wins SC, the race remains more open, but Biden will have a fairly clear claim to being the best alternative to Sanders and, per our projections, would likely finish comfortably ahead of Bloomberg in ST delegates.”
“So Bloomberg might be in a fairly distant 3rd place,” Silver concluded.
FiveThirtyEight’s Democratic Primary forecast currently places Bloomberg behind Sanders and Biden, with a one in thirty chance.
A new Progress Texas/Public Policy Polling survey also shows Sanders and Biden tied at 24 percent support ahead of the Texas primary, followed by Bloomberg at 17 percent. A major finding of the poll was that even though Bloomberg jumped into the race to stop Sanders, he’s actually siphoning 7% support from Biden, and helping Sanders.
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