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Cain of Terror: Herman Cain Leads Mitt Romney Among Likely GOP Caucusgoers

» 65 comments

In just the latest of a raft of stunning poll results, upstart GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain now leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling. The survey shows Cain getting 30% support, versus 22% for Romney, with former frontrunner Rick Perry in fourth place at 9%, and Iowa straw poll winner Michele Bachmann tied for fifth at just 8%. While this result is scary for Romney, it’s downright morbid for Perry and Bachmann.

So far, Cain’s ascent has been mainly at the expense of Rick Perry, a nuisance that Romney is probably glad to be rid of, but now that Cain shows signs of beating Romney, too, it’s time Romney got a little worried about Cain.

For Perry, and especially Bachmann, a win in the Iowa caucus is crucial to the viability of their candidacies. Romney can withstand a Cain win in Iowa, but Michele Bachmann definitely can’t, and Perry could use a win there, too. Cain has made inroads into Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, but still trails by considerable margins in all polls there.

In another recent Iowa poll, Cain placed second at 20% among “likely voters,” to Romney’s 23%, and at 16% among “potential voters,” with Romney also at 23% in that category. It’s a trend that’s been showing up in a lot of recent polls, with Cain polling better in surveys of likely voters, than in those that include leaners. PPP delved into that phenomenon in their press release:

Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed totheir first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change theirmind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. Hislibertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52%of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and aquarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.

Those numbers bode well for Cain’s chances to become the first Republican not to flame out after capturing the lead from Romney.

Here’s the full text of Public Policy Polling’s press release:

Cain vaults into lead over Romney in Iowa caucus, Perry in 4th

Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and
Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first
nominating contest. Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%,
Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and
Gary Johnson’s 1%.

When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s
straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%,
Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry
has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23
points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.

Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites.
He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West
Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support. Gingrich is the
fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%,
and Paul’s 9%. Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly,
Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s
and Huntsman’s. Perry’s support is spread around.

Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to
their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their
mind. Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base. His
libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52%
of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a
quarter of Bachmann’s. Romney has had consistent but soft support.

“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters
than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t
mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”

PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign
or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the
New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward
Republican candidates.

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  • Anonymous

    So far I like what I am hearing of Cain. Would like to hear more about his 9-9-9 plan. Does he bring in the prebate and only tax new items in the 9% sales tax?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_B5344MYI6BXUL36ADKK3JBTPJA GJPinks

    Only new would be taxed… used car, used home, used clothing…. NO TAX
    Take a look at you pay stub…
    subtract city and state taxes and 9% of the gross… That’s your take home… 

  • NDanielson

    NO MORE RINO’s! No more 0bama!!! No more president’s wives who hate AMERICA!!! Go Herman Cain!!!

  • NDanielson

    He gets rid of Barry, Michelle, Al and Jessie all in one fell swoop.

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Based on the picture above, herb has some very cool sunglasses!!

  • Patriot1

    Watch for Cain to take a hammering in the debate. Romney and Perry will be trying to take him down a peg or two. They maybe able to goad him into a serious verbal mistake.

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    You also left out that any person who votes for Herb, gets a free pizza in under 30 minutes or less!!

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Question: If Ronald Reagan were to be in the debate tonight, would he be considered a “Rino??” Would he even fit in today’s Republicon Party??

  • TruDat

    How would Kennedy do in the Democrat Party?  After all, he was in favor of self-reliance rather than handouts.

  • Anonymous

    heck, he’s more of a libby than Obama

    Citing statistics suggesting 9,200 murders are committed each year in
    the United States using handguns, Reagan said, “This level of violence
    must be stopped. Sarah and Jim Brady are working hard to do that, and I
    say more power to them.”

  • NDanielson

    Well seeing how Reagan is famous for saying “Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem”, I think he’d fit more into the Tea Party, but who’s quibbling? Does that answer your question?

  • Anonymous

    As governor of California, Reagan “signed into law the largest tax increase in the history of any state up till then.” Meanwhile, state spending nearly doubled. As president, Reagan “raised taxes in seven of his eight years in office,”
    including four times in just two years. As former GOP Senator Alan
    Simpson, who called Reagan “a dear friend,” told NPR, “Ronald Reagan raised taxes 11 times in his administration — I was there.” “Reagan was never afraid to raise taxes,” said historian Douglas Brinkley, who edited Reagan’s memoir. Reagan the anti-tax zealot is “false mythology,” Brinkley said.

  • NDanielson

    Wee baby D! Only half the truth, as usual. Emphasis mine:

    California Republicans were impressed with Reagan’s political views and charisma after his “Time for Choosing” speech,[69] and nominated him for Governor of California
    in 1966. In Reagan’s campaign, he emphasized two main themes: “to send
    the welfare bums back to work,” and in reference to burgeoning anti-war
    and anti-establishment student protests at the University of California at Berkeley, “to clean up the mess at Berkeley.”[70] He was elected, defeating two-term governor Edmund G. “Pat” Brown,
    and was sworn in on January 2, 1967. In his first term, he froze
    government hiring
    and approved tax hikes to balance the budget

    It is why you remain only partially informed. If that.

  • Anonymous

    so according to your response, we should raise taxes to balance the budget? Nice one Libby!!!

  • DEFENDER-90

    Escelting the war in Vietnam.

    Bay of pigs disaster.

  • NDanielson

    Hey check out Regan’s “A Time for Choosing” speech, and you will never have to ask anyone that question again! Thank me!

    Here is the transcript: http://www.nationalcenter.org/ReaganChoosing1964.html

    And video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXBswFfh6AY

  • NDanielson

    Well your lack of comprhension skills do explain a lot! But I don’t hold that against you wee baby D!

    WiddleBabyDanielson 6 minutes ago in reply to NDanielson
    so according to your response, we should raise taxes to balance the budget? Nice one Libby!!!

    Goodness, don’t you get embarrassed having to have everything explained to you like a baby???Here, the last sentence, read carefully: he froze
    government hiring
    and approved tax hikes to balance the budget.

    See the froze government hiring part??? Now how’d you miss that the first time?

    Show me anywhere “libbies” have agreed to FREEZE GOVERNMENT HIRING. Please libby. Show me anywhere. EVER.

  • Exgoper

    We already know the answer to that. Reagan sounds more like Obama than Cain on most of the key issues. 

  • Exgoper
  • Anonymous

    Cain’s wife sings at a church that compares white people to the devil. http://tinyurl.com/3gugtaf This is going to be a problem for the devil.

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Though he raised taxes 11 (could be 8, I would have to research it) times and increased the debt by vast amounts!! My point is the Republicons of today would not be happy with those decisions!!

    No doubt Reagan was a Republicon, but not so sure he would be today’s Republicon??

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Sure, they would love that quote but may have problems with some of his decisions on taxes and debt!!

  • NDanielson

    Sure sweetpea, now show me where Barry wants to FREEZE GOVERNMENT HIRING, to balance the budget, mmmmmkkkkaaaay?

  • Anonymous

    When I heard his interview by the WSJ he did not mention pre-bates. He did mention at some point that the sale tax was only on new goods at the retail level. He said that he plan isn’t regressive because the 9% income tax also eliminates the payroll tax of Social Security and Medicare which he said is currently being paid by all rich and poor. The 9% income tax I do believe is a flat tax. The 9% corporate isn’t a flat tax meaning only profits are taxed, which I think is a good thing but some may differ.  I personally like the FairTax better because of the pre-bates which makes it non-regressive and does a better job of eliminating the IRS. And at the beginning of his candidacy Cain supported the FairTax. It would be hard to get a regressive tax to pass congress.

    We do need a tax policy that is pro-business, small and large. What some do not understand or acknowledge is that a lot of corporations have left or reduced their presence in this country because of its
    tax code and rates not for lower wage workers.

    Now, here is my deal. I like Cain. He will continue to have my support as long as he remains a viable candidate that can beat Obama. Find out all you can about him and his tax plan. But keep this in mind, nobodies tax plan and that includes the FairTax, 9-9-9 or anything else out there will never pass the Congress or the Senate as is. At least he is trying and is willing to put his name on something. Must of us know the current tax system is crap. Almost anything would be better than what we have now.

  • TruDat

    Interesting how all the libs love Reagan now.

  • DEFENDER-90

    That’s not Herman Cain that’s Morpheus from the Matrix.

  • NDanielson

    She has never been to Jeremiah Wrights church. And interestingly, a word search for “cain” on your link, has no “cain”. How can that be?

  • NDanielson

    Wow, you and baby D will believe anything. I see how Barry got elected. Stupid, gullible people.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1572984371 Cindy Nowicki

    Yep…..No more taxes on used cars, homes, garage sale items, etc..No pre-owned items would be taxed.

    No more estate taxes, capital gains, or other taxes that hurt seniors who live on pensions through their 401k contributions.

    Cain explained away  the one sticking point that democrats key in on…..That being the 9% National sales tax. Cain stated that workers would only be paying 9% income tax, NO payroll tax. With payroll taxes averaging 15.6%, minus the 9% in sales tax, they are saving an average of 6% on their taxes. It is a “plus” for Americans.

    Cain also stated that his 9-9-9 plan was the first step toward his ultimate goal of the fair tax.

  • NDanielson

    But he froze government hiring. Bummer, huh?

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know the answer to your question but if he were a live today he would clean every bodies clock, the Republicans and Obama’s. But he’s not so let’s leave him out of it.

  • Anonymous

    “And interestingly, a word search for “cain” on your link, has no “cain”. How can that be?”

    You’re new to online research? (It would explain a lot.)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1572984371 Cindy Nowicki

    There you go again….Regurgitating those nasty liberal talking points….

    .MSNBC and their cohorts aren’t done feeding you yet?

  • Anonymous

    Though she has worked as a teacher and a librarian, Cain says his wife — who sings in the choir at Antioch Baptist Church North in Atlanta — has been a homemaker for most of their marriage.Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/05/19/herman-cain-my-wife-will-not-be-traditional-campaign-wife/#ixzz1aVXotUGZ

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Would Ronald Reagan (if he were still alive), sign Grover Norquist’s pledge not to raise taxes??

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Possibly!! Probably the toughest guy who ever ate jellybeans in political history!!

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    I’m not saying he didn’t do some things the Republicons love, but would he fit into the stringent rules of the Republicon Party today??

    He liked to compromise with the other Party, something that is frowned on by Republicons today!!

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Who wouldn’t want a free pizza, especially if you were going to vote for Herb anyway?? Plus, I didn’t vote for Obama!!

  • Okrawimfry

    Cain holds his own really well.  Been keeping an eye on him.  He connects well with the voters.

  • NDanielson

    Thier mission statement:

    Today,
    no one can predict all the challenges that the Antioch Congregation
    will face during the 21st Century. But as members of the body of Christ
    known and loved as Antioch, the Congregation will use the observance of
    its 133rd Anniversary to reflect upon its past and make a collective
    pledge that the membership’s hearts will remain warm and their minds
    receptive to the move of the Holy Spirit. The entire congregation will
    also continue to pray that Antioch will remain anchored to the
    traditions of her founding brethren in its spirit and in its commitment
    to God’s word and to Christian Service. As a congregation, we will all
    work aggressively to keep Antioch as a symbol of hope and a place of
    refuge and a living testament to the greatness and goodness of God. In
    so doing, we will continue the journey and build upon a legacy of strong
    Christian Service worthy of continued emulation and a very special
    place close to our Savior’s throne.

    Seems pretty benign to me. But share your concerns with the rest of us!

    Hey compare them with 0bama’s Black theology church, too! Oh, and try to explain now why they might be important to look at. Cain’s wife’s church and 0bama’s church are important now??? Cool. Explain how they compare. I’d love to hear the liberal take!

  • Anonymous

    It is because Republicans were claiming to be just like him. Made him their patron saint. Then we libs started comparing him with today’s candidates, and suddenly you conservatives want to forget him. 

  • NDanielson

    Leedog 6 minutes ago in reply to NDanielson

    I’m not saying he didn’t do some things the Republicons love,
    but would he fit into the stringent rules of the Republicon Party
    today??He liked to compromise with the other Party, something that is frowned on by Republicons today!!Is repulicons baby talk for something? Reagan did not compromise with democrats. Democrats compromised WITH REAGAN. BIG DIFFERENCE. The way it will be for a long, long time.

  • NDanielson

    Leedog 6 minutes ago in reply to NDanielson

    I’m not saying he didn’t do some things the Republicons love,
    but would he fit into the stringent rules of the Republicon Party
    today??He liked to compromise with the other Party, something that is frowned on by Republicons today!!Is repulicons baby talk for something? Reagan did not compromise with democrats. Democrats compromised WITH REAGAN. BIG DIFFERENCE. The way it will be for a long, long time.

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Lol!! Good one!!

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Lol!! Good one!!

  • NDanielson

    So stupid that you still believe in “free” stuff??? Who pays for government “free” stuff? Yeah I forgot you have to be 18 to vote. So in 6-7 years will you still be a liberal?

  • Anonymous

    Cain is an associate minister at Antioch Baptist Church North in Atlanta, which he joined at the age of 10.

  • Anonymous

    The libs want to make this out to be bad on the poor but the pre-bate proves them wrong. The corporations would be paying more because they don’t have the deductions but much less in the expense of accounting due to the current complicated tax code. Everyone needs to take an honest look at this plan. It could be the greatest move America can make. OWS types taking an honest look might learn that it answers a lot of what they claim are their concerns.

  • Anonymous

    Ugh. You’re a cheater! You don’t do your own homework! #FAIL

  • http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

    Republicon = Republican Con Artist!!

    “Reagan’s Social Security Reform Act not only reversed his own ideological opposition to Social Security but also identified the nation’s leading conservative as a defender of liberalism’s most cherished achievement: “This bill demonstrates for all time our nation’s ironclad commitment to Social Security,” Reagan announced when he signed the bill. (For his part, Tip O’Neill called Reagan’s action “a happy day for America.”) But the law has also reverberated across the decades into our own times; in 2005, George W. Bush failed to enact his plan to privatize Social Security despite having Republican majorities in Congress. The Reagan compromise strengthened the position of Social Security’s defenders, so much so that few elected officials openly endorse plans either to privatize or make Social Security voluntary anymore.  
    Students of Reagan have offered praise for this agreement. Reagan biographer Lou Cannon praised Reagan’s Social Security commission as an example of “a compromise that did some things the Democrats wanted and some things the Republicans wanted,” while even the former president’s critics including author Will Bunch cited the Social Security deal as a “practical” and bipartisan reform that had a “lasting positive impact” on government and public policy.”

    http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2009/04/02/bipartisan-reagan-oneill-social-security-deal-in-1983-showed-it-can-be-done

    Sounds like Reagan DID compromise with Democrats!!

  • NDanielson

    BHorizons 42 minutes ago in reply to NDanielson
    Ugh. You’re a cheater! You don’t do your own homework! #FAIL

    The one thing about you, as stupid as you are, is that if you had any way to refute my post, it would be plastered for all to see. We’ll wait, and let your lack of proof, serve for what it is…proof that you are an IDIOT.

  • Anonymous

    Keep on waiting, moron. I see I’m not the only one that likes to keep you and your kind in suspense. You apparently like to keep yourself in suspense too (sicko!)

  • Anonymous

    Rush Limbaugh today played a clip of Herman Cain talking to then-president Clinton about Clinton’s health care plan.  Clinton is by far a better policy wonk than President Obama, and the Hermanator had the facts and figures ready to debunk all the assumptions President Clinton was using.  Clinton essentially told Herman Cain to send him the figures and he would get back to him.  If President Obama tries to do that during a debate he’s history.  Herman Cain is by far the best debater in the race.

  • Anonymous

    hahahahaha

    DELETE

  • Johnell

    I tell you, those Republicans are so sly.  Concealing their OBVIOUS racism by nominating a black guy!  Another dastardly, racist plot that us liberals can see right through.

  • Johnell

    I tell you, those Republicans are so sly.  Concealing their OBVIOUS racism by nominating a black guy!  Another dastardly, racist plot that us liberals can see right through.

  • Pablo

    Cain’s plan is that 9-9-9 is Phase 1 of a plan that sees the Fair Tax imposed as Phase 2. http://www.hermancain.com/999plan

    Yes, this 70,000 page tangle of social engineering and crony capitalism needs to go. Damn near anything would be better than this.

    It can’t pass?  Imagine Congresscritters going back to their districts and explaining how they support keeping Corporate Welfare and an ever growing IRS.

    The tax code is lunacy. Proper use of the bully pulpit could easily get the vast majority of Americans willing to abolish it. It has something for everyone to despise.

  • Pablo

    Hey, Herman Cain agrees with that too! 9-9-9 has no room for loopholes. All of them, gone.

  • Pablo

    Reagan didn’t have a choice but to compromise with Democrats. Well, I suppose he could have taken the Obama route and stomped his feet and demagogued them. But he didn’t have such a petulant child within him. 

  • Pablo

    “God bless America? No, no, no. God Damn America! It’s in the Bible!”

    Little wonder the President has a deep seated hatred of white people. It really seems to be messing with his head. He can’t even cope with living in a white house.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/aimless_obama_walks_alone_OUgoMTkORRJioLl7B6ZYmN

  • Exgoper

    Uh oh. Even someone as dim as Erick Erickson of Redstate now thinks Cain is deluded:

    “He is starting to get the tough questions on his 999 plan and his
    responses sound like they were crafted in the land of unicorns and
    rainbows …”

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_SIYF5565LXG7BBKTKGSSFWU7TA The Rock

    Your claim is a lie there is no Rino in GOP so facts to backup your claims which you can’t. There has never been president’s wives that hate America either so that is another idiot.

  • Charles Ulysses Feney

    Cain Ain’t Able

    A Federal Reserve stooge named Herman
    Tried givin’ American po’folk a sermon
    “If you ain’t rich
    You must be one lazy beotch!”
    He’s about as subtle as General Sherman.

    Now where does Uncle Tom get the nerve
    After working for the Federal Reserve,
    The biggest thieves on the earth,
    To question anyone’s worth
    When unemployment’s on an exponential curve?

    Herman says “Lift yourself by your laces!
    There’s plenty jobs around for all races!”
    But there’s no factories,
    ‘Cause with Fed subsidies,
    They vanished overseas, leaving no traces!

    But Herman’s Fed prints out trillions for euro banks,
    Then hands the bill to taxpayers, without thanks!
    Man, it’s as good as it can get
    When you’ve got a license to counterfeit,
    And now Herman wants to join the Presidential ranks!

    Yes, this former pizza peddler named Cain
    Says God told him to get into the campaign
    With his 9-9-9 tax plan
    But turn it over and scan
    And the “Mark of the Beast” becomes plain!

    When Herman’s tax plan is laid on the table
    It’s apparent that it’s a tax increase fable.
    It’s austerity in disguise
    Which Herman vehemently denies,
    But when asked to prove it, CAIN AIN’T ABLE!

    But Cain says he’s a foreign policy man
    Who knows he needs an international plan,
    But when put on the spot
    Herman had just one thought:
    It was “Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan”!
    ___________________________
    Charles Ulysses Feney

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_B5344MYI6BXUL36ADKK3JBTPJA GJPinks

    There was a poet named feney
    who had talent not any
    if paid a dollar for wit
    or for any thought a bit
    his worth alas would is only a penny 

  • Charles Ulysses Feney

    A Stinky Pinky

    A wannabe poet named Pinks
    wrote a ditty that publicly stinks,
    but it’s no surprise
    because no one denies
    that at the imbecile level he thinks!

    Yes, this moron embarrassed his name
    with his sophomoric attempt to defame
    a limerick god,
    but no one thought it odd
    ’cause the drooler thrives on public shame.

    But I’ll bet next time that this cretin tries,
    he’ll pick someone more his mental size
    like a random half-wit,
    or a passing idiot
    For challenging a Titan is always unwise!
    ______________________________
    Charles Ulysses Feney (as in zany)

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