Midterm Harbinger? Harry Reid Leads Sharron Angle 44%-37% in New Poll

According to a new Mason-Dixon poll, Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) may have turned the “corner” on Sharron Angle. The poll shows Reid leading, for the first time, over his Teapublican opponent, 44%-37%, with a 4-pt margin of error. While the political media are pushing the idea that the mid-terms are a referendum on President Obama, could this poll be an indicator that the White House’s framing, that you don’t give the keys back to the ones who drove us into the ditch, is working? (h/t Rumproast)

Even with this lead, Harry Reid, like President Obama, suffers from less-than-majority support, an awful sign for an incumbent. People aren’t happy with the Democrats, but they’re even unhappier with the Republicans. Granted, Sharron Angle is a uniquely awful candidate (who actually threatened to sue Reid in order to silence…herself), but even so, Reid has been in trouble for a very long time, and it only took Angle a month to pull him out of it.

Much has been made of the “anti-incumbent sentiment,” one that flowers in off-year elections anyway, and is aggravated by tough economic times. But if the Democrats can convince voters that the Republicans are that much worse, and they get a few lucky breaks on the economy, they could pull off some ugly wins.

The key will be who can turn out voters, an area in which Republicans have a big advantage. Constant opposition to the Obama administration has energized their base, particularly the Tea Party, while the administration’s supporters have either taken a nap, or even turned on them.

How to do that? Well, as I’ve said before, I think Robert Gibbs was trying to wake up the base when he pointed out that there are enough seats in play for the Republicans to take back the House. It certainly woke up Nancy Pelosi.

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