Trump, Bernie Win Big, But It’s the Distant 5th and 2nd Place Finishers Who Own the Narrative
Sometimes it’s not whether you win or lose, but who finishes second and fifth.
Polls closed at 8:00 PM EST in New Hampshire Tuesday night. Fox, CNN and MSNBC all called Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders the winners of their respective races at 8:00:20. On the Democratic side, Bernie becomes the first Jewish candidate to win a presidential primary. Historic stuff. On the GOP side, Donald Trump — a businessman with no political experience who many thought was a joke of a candidate when he announced his candidacy — will likely double the vote of his next closest competitor in John Kasich. Historic stuff.
But those stories are almost afterthoughts as I write this as of 8:45 PM while the votes are still being counted. Second place and even third and fifth place are the stories now. Let’s first look at the Democratic side: Hillary Clinton wasn’t going to win New Hampshire tonight… we’ve known that for quite some time. But if the former Secretary of State could at least make the score respectable via a loss in single digits, it would be considered a moral victory. That looks like it ain’t happening now, not even close (Sanders holds a 21-point lead in the 9:00 PM hour). The Bernie blowout is amazing when considering all the advantages Hillary had going into this race: Money, organization, name recognition, an impressive resume on paper, a former popular president campaigning for her… not to mention that whole first-female-president thing that she’s basically based her campaign on.
Hillary will likely win Nevada (February 20) because of its more diverse voters, of course, but she’s in a long slog now. Because after a virtual tie in Iowa and a beatdown in New Hampshire, she’s showing she’s simply not a good candidate when considering all of those advantages she had going in against a 74-year-old Democratic socialist who had almost zero name recognition and cash when he announced last year. One Fox exit poll from tonight says it all: On honesty and trustworthiness, she loses to Bernie 93 to 5 percent. 93-5. It’s hard to unring a bell like that, which nicely transitions us to the Republican side and the big storylines there.
Donald Trump is no different than Bernie Sanders in terms of tonight’s result: The victory was expected. The only question was margin of victory, and anything above 15 points will do just fine for the Trump camp, because it generally meets his polling number going in. But the bigger story is who likely finishes fifth in the form of Marco Rubio.
It was noted in this space yesterday just how much debates matter, with Rubio and Trump being two of the three examples presented (Reagan’s performance in New Hampshire in 1980 was the other: You can see why here). Regarding Trump, he admits missing the Fox debate before the Iowa caucus was a bad idea in retrospect. Regarding Rubio, Saturday night’s ABC debate will be remembered as his Rick Perry moment: A debate flub(s) that allowed an opponent (Chris Christie) to define him as scripted, robotic and therefore not authentic, which happens to be the most important attribute to own if Bernie and Trump are any indication. The Florida senator will likely finish fifth tonight after looking like second was a very real possibility after leaving Iowa with the wind at his back.
First, a note on Christie. He invested more hours than anyone in New Hampshire outside of Kasich. He’s performed very well during every debate. He’s come across as likable, almost Jackie Gleason-esque, during every interview. But the fear of another shoe dropping in Bridgegate combined with an good-news-bad-news record in New Jersey was always Christie’s problem… along with that whole we-can’t-nominate-another-Northeastern-Republican-sentiment among the base (See: Romney, Mitt). In the end, Christie will always be remembered as the Jack Ruby of this primary season, because he was the guy who took Rubio out during that last debate without gaining anything out of it for himself. From the beginning, Christie attempted to portray himself as the tough, candid guy who can get things done. Problem for him was Trump already captured the starring bully role in the eyes of voters.
Which brings us back to Rubio, who is officially now a caricature more than a candidate. He’s mocked by people dressed as robots at every campaign stop he makes. The media can’t mention him without referencing the repetition tick. Call it unfair for a few bad moments, but that’s how politics works… particularly in an age of social media when brush fires become uncontrollable wildfires in mere minutes. If this were another time, another campaign season, maybe Rubio recovers. But the moment Rubio shows any sign of life again, rest assured Trump will never allow him — and the media that covers his every word — to forget his new nickname: Marco Roboto.
As for Kasich, it’s hard to see where he goes from here outside as the undisputed favorite to be a VP selection. Brit Hume said it best when once observing that the Ohio Governor was running to be president of New Hampshire (thanks to practically living in the Granite State for months while holding an impressive 107 Town Hall meetings). It’s been stated in this space before that Kasich is the most prepared, most experienced, best candidate running on either side right now. His approval rating in Ohio — a state that went twice for Barack Obama — sits at an astounding 62 percent. His record in both Congress and as governor around budgeting, deficit reduction, job creation, and attention/resources allocated to mental illness and drug addiction is unmatched by anyone left seeking to be president.
But money and organization are important things, and Kasich doesn’t have much of either. Perhaps the Rubio money will go to him as that campaign continues to crumble. Perhaps those clinging to the idea that the Bush brand is still viable will finally come to their senses. But for now, Kasich goes to South Carolina with only a breeze at his back, and not the kind of gust it would take to bring down the big, bad wolf in Donald Trump… who leads there by 16 points in the Real Clear Politics average.
Iowa was must-see-TV. New Hampshire was a foregone conclusion. The only two questions were who would finish second on the GOP side, and if Hillary could stay within 20 points of a guy she once led by 40.
But Clinton will live on to fight another day. She’s still the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, warts and all.
Marco Rubio will fight another day, but the punches will be as telegraphed as a debate response.
First place? Big deal. It’s who finished a distant fifth and second in the first and perhaps most pivotal primary in the nation that are the big stories tonight.
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Follow Joe Concha on Twitter @JoeConchaTV
This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.
