IDF Officials Estimate 15,000 Dead in Gaza — Matching Count By Hamas-Run Health Ministry
Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel , Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023. AP Photo/Ariel Schalit.
Since Israel first started bombing Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 terror attack by Hamas, some have questioned the reported death toll in the enclave, since the only figures available have been provided by the Gaza Health Ministry, which is part of the Hamas-run government.
That skepticism was captured by President Joe Biden, who said in late October that he had “no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.”
The Washington Post’s fact-checker said the president showed “excessive skepticism” to the numbers put out by the Health Ministry, and that his dismissal of the figures was “remarkably uninformed by history and precedent.” That precedent, as the Post pointed out, is that the Health Ministry’s numbers are historically reliable and end up being confirmed by the final count of Israel and independent bodies that track casualties in war.
A top State Department official testified before Congress last month that the death toll could be even higher than the numbers being reported. “We think they’re very high, frankly,” said the official, Barbara Leaf. “And it could be that they’re even higher than are being cited. We’ll know only after the guns fall silent.”
It was later reported that Biden privately apologized to prominent Muslim-Americans for his comments, though he has not publicly corrected the record.
The Health Ministry’s numbers now stand at nearly 16,000 dead. While the Ministry does not distinguish between Hamas fighters and civilians, it estimates that the vast majority of the dead — some 70% — are women and children. Eighty percent of the more than two million residents of Gaza have been displaced since Oct. 7.
Now, we have a sense of the estimated toll from the Israeli side. According to multiple reports, including in the Washington Post, the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse, IDF officials said they believe the number of dead in Gaza is 15,000, more or less matching the numbers reported by the Ministry.
The Post cited an anonymous IDF official:
The official said the IDF has killed “something more” than 5,000 Hamas combatants, estimating the overall death toll was around 15,000 — in line with the figures provided by Gaza’s Health Ministry, which Israeli and U.S. officials have sought to discredit during the war as a propaganda arm of Hamas.
Israel resumed bombing Gaza last week after a weeklong truce ended. Israel has pledged to “eradicate” Hamas, which the IDF estimates had 30,000 members before Oct. 7.
House Democrat Seth Moulton told CNN that the ratio of civilians versus Hamas combatants killed is not promising. Per CNN:
Citing a study commissioned by retired Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, which said for every civilian killed about 10 terrorists are recruited, Moulton said: “By that number, Israel so far killed about 5,000 Hamas terrorists but in the process they’ve recruited about 100,000 new adherents. And this is bad news for Israel.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the new reporting.
