‘Running to the Exits!’ CNN Data Guru Accuses Republicans of Retiring to Avoid Midterm Bloodbath

CNN’s Harry Enten accused House Republicans of retiring to avoid a bloodbath come Election Day this fall during an animated Monday morning segment.

Anchor John Berman kicked off the conversation by making note of the retirement of House Transportation Committee Chairman Sam Graves (R-MO) and asking Enten for “historical perspective” on the number of GOP retirements.

“You know, I would say that House Republicans are running for the exits faster than kids do on the final day of school. I mean, just take a look here. Oh, hello! Most House retirements since 1930. So far this cycle, already 36, 36. That is the grand record over the last nearly 100 years. My goodness gracious,” replied Enten. “That actually beats the former record in total, which was 34 back in the 2018 cycle, and that wasn’t that long ago, and I do recall that was a very, very good year for House Democrats. The bottom line is this, you don’t run for the exits unless you know trouble is brewing. And House Republicans, so far, believe trouble is absolutely brewing.”

“Okay, how do you know that? What does history tell us about these types of exits?” followed up Berman.

“Let’s take a look here. Okay, party with THE fewer House retirements since 1982 in midterm cycles, they went on to win the U.S. House 80% of the time. Far fewer Democrats are retiring this cycle than Republicans,” said Enten. “When one site runs for exits, they lose the House of Representatives. When one side stays put, it’s because they think something good is going to happen. And House Democrats clearly think something is good going to happened, and House Republicans clearly think something very bad, very bad is going to happen.”

Steering the conversation back toward Graves, Berman wondered aloud what he might have been “looking at that caused him to retired?”

Enten happily answered:

You know, some elected officials aren’t so smart, but many of them are, and they’re looking at the same numbers we’re looking at. And what they’re looking at is the president of the United States and his approval rating. So why don’t we just take a look here? Why are GOP retiring? Okay, when the president’s approval is less than 50%, I went back all the way through the record books, all the way back since 1938 in midterm elections, when the House, the prez party in the House on average loses 34 seats, loses 34 seats when the president’s approval rating is less than 50%. Donald Trump isn’t anywhere close to 50%. He’s at 40%.

The average, the House, the House for the president party, they lose 34 seats. The least, the least was just nine. That was actually Joe Biden back in 2022. But guess what? House Democrats only need a pick up of one, two, three in order to gain a majority. So the least, even the worst case scenario for Democrats is not anywhere close to what Republicans need to hold on to the House of Representatives.

And one little last historical anecdote, as I go over to the blackboard over here, the only two times that the president’s party did not lose at least three seats was 1998 and 2002. You know what the president’s approval rating was in those years? It was 60%+. And Donald Trump at this point is just at a 40% approval rate, nowhere near what House Republicans need. And that is why I said, they’re running to the exit.

Watch above via CNN.

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