Democratic Pollster Predicts a Huge Trump Win on Election Night — But Says Biden Will End Up Winning Within a Week
President Donald Trump is likely going to win big on election night — including in traditionally Democratic states, such as Minnesota and Virginia — but will lose the election a week later because of mail-in voting, according to a Democratic pollster.
“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” HawkFish CEO Josh Mendelsohn said in an interview with Axios on HBO.
One scenario modeled by Mendelsohn’s polling firm even shows Trump prevailing in the Electoral College on election night, winning 408 electoral votes compared to just 130 for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. The model shows Biden winning California, New York, Colorado, Oregon, and the state of Washington.
That scenario accounts for the idea that just 15 percent of mail-in votes will be counted by election night. In that event, the model suggests, Biden could prevail days later — if counting goes smoothly — by 334 electoral votes to 204 for Trump.
“When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn said. “It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”
He pointed out that this outcome may shake the losing side’s faith in the integrity of the election.
“Even if you ultimately get to the end result — which is that Joe Biden would be president of the United States — now you’ve taken what in politics would be taken as a bit of a mandate to govern … you in fact find yourself in this deeply polarized situation where a portion of the American electorate, a real portion of the American electorate, feels that injustice was done,” Mendelsohn said.
Watch above via HBO.
Have a tip we should know? firstname.lastname@example.org