President Donald Trump’s odds of impeachment shot up in the wake of news Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, and reports that the fired national security adviser will be fully cooperating with Robert Mueller’s Russia probe.
The Independent reported that U.K. betting services are increasingly confident that the Russia investigation could lead to Trump’s impeachment:
“In the wake of the bombshell news that Michael Flynn is pleading guilty to making false statements to the FBI during their Russia investigations, President Trump has hit his shortest price yet to leave office before the end of his term,” Naomi Totten, spokeswoman for Betfair, told The Independent.
“Paddy Power now bet 4/7 that Donald Trump will be impeached. That’s an implied probability of 63 per cent,” said Joe Lee, Paddy Power’s Head of Trump Betting.
“Those odds sat at 11/10 yesterday which would have been a 47 per cent probability,” he continued. “Our punters are also very interested in the year of impeachment with 2018 now sitting at even money – making it a 50/50 shot it happens in the next 12 months.”
As Newsweek also noted, American betting services offer a similarly dim outlook of Trump’s chances of presidential survival:
On the real-money politics prediction market, PredictIt, the price of Trump being impeached shot up 8 cents following Friday’s news. It now stands at 41 cents, edging closer to a 50-50 chance that the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump before the end of his first term. The highest the price ever at the close of a day is 39 cents.
Despite the eagerness of these betting services, it’s important to note that while two presidents have been impeached — the most recent being President Bill Clinton — none have ever been removed from office. President Richard Nixon resigned before his (fairly inevitable) impeachment.
And with a Republican controlled Congress, it’s unlikely Trump’s going anywhere soon.
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