James Carville’s Doomsday Prediction of Trump’s Collapse Is Coming True Faster Than Anyone Imagined

James Carville was right.

In late February, the famed Democratic strategist told Mediaite founder Dan Abrams that the Trump administration would “collapse” within 30 days. He argued the Democrats should play possum and let it happen.

Carville took some heat for that take, from Democrats furious that anyone would propose disarmament to Republicans bemused by how anyone could so confidently claim that President Donald Trump’s second term would so quickly go off the rails.

Then came Liberation Day. Trump’s Rose Garden announcement last week that the United States would be slapping steep tariffs on the world — in defiance of the vast majority of economic experts — sent markets into a nosedive and now has even the most loyal Trump supporters panicking about an “economic nuclear winter.” JP Morgan jefe Jamie Dimon now says recession is likely.

The context of Carville’s commentary was not tariffs or even the spending bill to keep the government open. Carville’s comments followed Abrams’s question about Trump’s nominations and how Democrats should have handled the confirmation hearings and votes.

“What should they do from a media or political perspective?” Abrams asked.

Carville’s response:

This whole thing is collapsing. It doesn’t need Elizabeth Warren and somebody screaming to pacify some progressive advocacy groups in Washington, which by the way, I wish these people were just useless. they’re actually worse than useless, that they’re detrimental. and they never ever learn to shut up. So, Dan, this is what I believe. I believe that this administration, in less than 30 days, in the midst of a massive collapse, in particularly a collapse in public opinion. (Polling expert) Della Vope at Harvard, who’s very good. I used to think, once I saw a Harvard youth poll, I discounted it. I’ve come to say, it’s a pretty damn good poll. Pretty good guy. He’s gone from 53 approval to under 30 to 39. That’s a collapse. And all we need to do, the analogy I use, is pick it as 500 yards from the stone wall. Hold your fire. It’s going to be easy pickings here in six weeks. Just lay back.

Again, this was not about tariffs. Even though he campaigned on a draconian tariff policy, it was not even a gleam in anyone’s eye in late February. Trump has since reminded everyone that they voted for this, but he also promised to get Mexico to pay for a border wall and that he’d end the Russia- Ukraine war in 24 hours. Dude talks a lot of shit, so you may be forgiven for not taking his trade trash talk seriously.

Turns out? It was serious, and $5 trillion in wealth (!) has been erased in less than a week.

Back to Carville’s comments about how the Democrats should just play dead and let it play out: That has turned out to be smart politics as well. Imagine if Schumer had shut down the government ahead of Liberation Day? The looming disaster we now find ourselves heading towards would be a bloodbath.

When I reached Carville to ask about his prediction, he told me: “I thought it was going to collapse on Memorial Day, not on April Fools Day.”

His advice for the opposition? “The Democratic message is simple. We can fix this situation in two hours. We’ll vote to restore tariff power to Congress, and this can be fixed by this afternoon. Democrats need to fix this and move to the next objective, and they need to keep the pressure up.”

One key component of a Trump collapse, of course, is an erosion in his previously rock-solid base of support. Serious cracks are already emerging.

Longtime pro-Trump voices are expressing grave doubts. Ben Shapiro, Dave Portnoy, Bill Ackman and even Elon Musk are aggressively calling bullshit on this tariff policy and warning of a recession. Fox News personalities closest to Trump — like Maria Bartiromo — are even saying this might not be the smartest move.

Trump’s losing these key media voices should be a massive concern to this White House because Trump’s power is directly tied to a media narrative entirely crafted by a conservative media echo chamber that is now enormous, wildly influential, and existing mostly outside the realm of facts.

The sub-head of a recent Puck article about polling reads, “While most presidents enjoy a post-inaugural boost to their popularity, the early post-Liberation Day polling shows Trump’s support on the economy collapsing rapidly.”  “These economic numbers to me scream red flag,” said polling analyst Lakshya Jain to Puck. “Honeymoons don’t end in April.’”

Now, of course, it has to be stated that we are at the beginning of a long and uncertain road. What if the Trump theory of world trade is right, and everyone else is wrong? It’s possible, though hard to fathom (and made harder by the fact that the administration itself can’t define the goal of these tariffs and has given totally contradictory rationales for them in every single media appearance). Trump could easily pivot to a pause under the guise of intense negotiations, something Bill Ackman and many others have been pleading with him to do.

David Alexrod just made a similar prediction via social media:

But for now, Trump appears to be doubling down on the most significant self-inflicted wound in presidential history. Even if he backs down now, the damage is done. America’s economy, and the global economy as well, will have a hard time recovering from this. Carville was right. Unfortunately for anyone whose retirement plans rely on a robust 401k

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.