Stop Giving Bad, Misleading Polls Attention
No politically literate pundit or pollster believes that Donald Trump is cruising toward a 10-point popular vote victory over President Joe Biden next year.
In 2016, Trump prevailed in the electoral college despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes, or 2% of the total votes cast. Four years later, Trump lost the popular vote by over 7 million votes and 5.5%.
So when a pollster asks you to take seriously its claim that Trump would trounce Biden by 10 points if the election were held today — and at worst coast to a shocking 6.5 point victory per its margin of error — they should be roundly ignored.
Such is the case with the survey released by the Washington Post and ABC News over the weekend, which submitted that a representative sample of the American public prefers Trump to Biden by a margin of 52%-42%.
As unbelievable in the most literal sense, as this topline result is, the crosstabs are even more telling.
Exit polls from 2020 indicated that Biden had won the non-white vote by 45 points, but the Washington Post/ABC poll — which was conducted by Langer Research Associates — shows only a 9-point advantage for the incumbent there. Three years ago, Biden won voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by 15 points, now we’re meant to believe Trump would take them by 16 points.
This latest shock poll shows similarly unbelievable swings toward Trump among independents (+26), rural voters (+26), moderates (+22), and urban voters (+14).
In a tacit recognition of the deficiencies of its product, the Post noted that “outlier results occasionally occur in polls due to random error and nonresponse issues,” but insisted that “the political composition of the poll is typical on other metrics.
But the results don’t just make the poll an “outlier,” as the pollsters themselves admitted. The results are actively misleading, and fail not only to reflect reality, but any potential reality.
Democrats have obvious reason to object to the poll’s amplification. It paints a dismal portrait of Biden’s chances of winning that could depress enthusiasm and discourage voters.
But Republicans, too, should be frustrated with the release and promotion of the poll, which is being used to prop up the only candidate in the race who has proven his ability to lose to the undoubtedly unpopular, geriatric Biden.
Trump loyalist Laura Loomer echoed many of the former president’s boosters on Sunday when she tweeted that “President Trump is currently beating Biden by 10 POINTS in national polls. If you’re a ‘Republican’ running against Trump, you’re not a Republican. You’re a Democrat.”
The Trump campaign and its principal himself touted the poll, the latter declaring that “The WAPO has just increased my polling lead over Crooked Joe Biden to 10 Points, from 9.”
“Well, at least they admitted their mistake!” he added.
By all accounts, the bulk of polling suggests that a Trump-Biden rematch would be a close race that either man could win. It is after all important to keep in mind that Trump could lose the popular vote by the same margin he did in 2020 and actually retake the White House via the electoral college.
But polls prognosticating a 10 point Trump victory as not just risible, they’re dangerous to the reputations of those who repeat them and the political prospects of those who take them seriously.
This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.
